January 10, 2008

Mets may have strongest package for Santana

Update 1:15 PM: If you'd like to see some thoughts from a "Mets expert" then go over and check out Mets Blog as Matthew Cerrone has set up a poll asking fans if they'd be fine with a 5-1 trade of Johan Santana. It'd be all four of the players Joe Christensen mentioned in his post as well as uber prospect Fernando Martinez. The votes are fairly surprising to me as it's nearly 70% of the votes that people have said "Yes" to.

Cerrone's reasoning for the Mets to acquire Santana make sense and I recommend that you check it out. And make sure to vote!

According to Joe Christensen of the Star Tribune, the New York Mets may be the team to wind up with Johan Santana when all is said and done. Christensen notes:
According to people with knowledge of the discussions, the Mets have offered top pitching prospect Deolis Guerra, along with center fielder Carlos Gomez and pitchers Kevin Mulvey and Phil Humber.
If you'd like to learn more about these players, you can check Seth Stoh's "Get to Know 'Em: Mets Prospects" or you may check out a few past posts that I've talked about deals such as this.

It's really not a lot different than any of the deals that either the Yankees or Red Sox have reportedly offered. In fact, I personally think that the overall talent that we'd be receiving would rank below the Yankees deal, and may be even lower than both of the reported deals of the Red Sox.

I'm a big fan of Gomez's potential which is evident in the grade that I gave him while I addressed 4 different potential center fielders the Twins may look to acquire in a Johan Santana trade. Here's what I said at the time:
Gomez might have the most potential on this list of players, but he also is the most "raw" player and has very little experience compared to the others as well. He has a great body frame of 6 feet, 4 inches and 195 lbs. He also is considered one of the fastest players in baseball, and has been said to have more speed than teammate Jose Reyes. The Mets are starting to emerge as a possible favorite to land Santana, the question is "what will they give up for him?" According to Jayson Stark, the Twins proposed an offer of outfielders Carlos Gomez and Fernando Marinez as well as pitchers Kevin Mulvey, Mike Pelfrey, and Phil Humber. The Mets reportedly countered with Gomez, two of the pitchers mentioned, and another unnamed prospect. In my opinion, asking for all five of those players is very unreasonable on the Twins behalf and I don't think it'll ever happen. Now, if the unnamed prospect in the counter offer by the Mets happened to be Martinez (which I admit, is doubtful) then I think the Twins would be foolish to not make that trade. But I think a more realistic trade that would be pretty fair for both teams would be outfielders Gomez and Brahiam Maldando along with pitchers Pelfrey, Deolis Guerra, and Mulvey. The Twins are very unlikely to get Martinez as he's one of the highest rated outfield prospects in baseball as well as Carlos Gomez, especially after the team also just traded Lastings Milledge who was also one of their young outfielders that they were going to rely on in the future.
Career Potential: A
Chances of reaching potential: Medium
Player comparison: Carlos Beltran
So like I said, he could boom or bust, however it's a very risky move to center a trade around a player as unproven as Gomez.

In regards to Martinez, Christensen also notes:
The Twins like those players. They've told the Mets they'd have a done deal if New York would add prized outfield prospect Fernando Martinez.
And I hope the Mets are the team to blink on this offer and caught up both Martinez & Gomez which has been speculated that they are not willing to do. I can't lame the Mets for not wanting to part with both of the prized outfielders since other teams don't seem willing to part with two top quality players for Santana either. If the Yankees were willing to offer Ian Kennedy along with Phil Hughes, or if the Red Sox were willing to put both Jacoby Ellsbuy & Jon Lester in the same deal, then I'm sure the Mets would probably offer both. (However it probably wouldn't make a difference as the Twins would likely select the Yankees offer anyways).

If the Twins could get both Martinez & Gomez as well as a pitching prospect or two, I couldn't see them decline that offer and I think they'd be fools if they did.

One of the teams that seem to be in the "hunt" for Santana which includes the Yankees, Red Sox, & Mets will hopefully "blink" and this can all be resolved sometime in the next week or two.

(Pictures courtesy of Metsblog.com)