February 13, 2010

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #16 Deolis Guerra

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #16 | Deolis Guerra

Position | Pitcher

Bats/Throws | Right/Right

Born | April 17, 1989 (San Felix, Venezuela)

School
| Not Available

Height
| 6'5''

Weight
| 200 lbs.

2009 Ranking | 12




Breakdown
Deolis Guerra received a $700,000 signing bonus from the New York Mets in 2005 as a 16-year-old. He got started in the states in 2006 as a 17-year-old. The Mets let him skip rookie ball and started to move him right up the later where he appeared in 17 games for the Single-A Hagerstown Suns. He had a 2.20 ERA with the Suns and the Mets felt comfortable with promoting him late in August and allow him to pitch for the St. Lucie Mets who would later win the Florida State League Championship. In 2007, Guerra found himself as an 18-year-old pitching in the Florida State League where he respectfully posted a 4.02 ERA in 21 appearances (20 starts). Despite his poor record of 2-6, everything seemed to be going right for Guerra.

In January of 2008, Guerra was traded along with Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber and Kevin Mulvey to the Twins for Johan Santana. The Twins weren't going to promote Guerra just yet, instead they wanted to see him prove that he deserved a promotion fromthe Florida State League. 2008, at the young age of 19, Guerra went 11-9 with a 5.47 ERA with the Fort Myers Miracle, a considerable regression from the year before. He began the 2009 season in the Florida State League and after 16 appearances (15 starts), Guerra was finally promoted to Double-A New Britain. Prior to the promotion, Guerra was 6-8 with a 4.69 ERA which is clear evidence that he still wasn't where the Twins wanted him to be, but they felt that a change of scenery was necessary for Guerra. He finished the season by winning six games for the Rock Cats and posting a 5.17 ERA.

Two-years later, Guerra is the only player still with the Twins from the Santana trade. It's hard to believe that he will only be 21-years-old in 2010 and that if he began his career with the Twins he'd likely be getting his first crack at the Florida State League. He has a very long delivery, which many believe is the source for his lack of velocity. Baseball America considers Guerra's change-up to be the best in the system. He also has a curveball, but it's far behind both his fastball and change-up. There's no reason to give up on Guerra yet, but it'd be nice to see some productivity from him this season.

2009 Statistics
          Level      W     L     ERA     IP     K     BB     WHIP     FIP
          A+         6     8    4.69   86.1    54     25     1.39    3.83
AA 6 3 5.17 62.2 49 17 1.26 3.52

2010 Outlook

Guerra will begin the 2010 season at Double-A New Britain and at just 21-years-old, he'll likely end the season there too.

Pitching Repertoire
  • Fastball (87-91)
  • Curveball
  • Change-up
Video


Estimated Time of Arrival
2012

2 comments:

Joseph said...

You are right. Guerra's main problem is that elongated delivery. It causes him to release the ball behind is head which doesn't give much force obviously. My question is even though he doesn't turn 21 until second week of the season, he still has had the same mechanical issue for 2 seasons. I don't expect it to change anytime soon.

Anonymous said...

I played with him in venezuela, and i think because his delivery he had some problems throwing strikes, i do not know how much he has improved that., but i think that Minesota should work on him little bit longer, he is still 20 years old, and he signed when he was 16, he is still young he still need to mature more.