Wednesday, November 11, 2009

Who's at second?

Since Todd Walker and Chuck Knoblauch played at the Metrodome, the Twins haven't had steady play from any of their second basemen. In fact, the team has put in little effort (at least, compared to other positions) to upgrade it at all. Surely you can mention Brett Boone or Luis Castillo, but both were well past their prime before putting on a Twins uniform. And when options like Alexi Casilla and Luis Rivas have failed, the Twins haven't been able to find a suitable replacement. And now after a decade of futility at (admittedly) a position that isn't viewed as a highly productive position, the Twins could be in a great position to finally find a productive player to put at second base.

Last week, I mentioned who I would most like to see at second base. Today, I'll give other options that could entise the Twins. And thankfully, there are quite a few.

Orlando Cabrera - The Twins traded for JJ Hardy last week which made everyone assume that the Twins would move on from Cabrera. But since the trade, there have been some rumblings over Ron Gardenhire's comments of how he'd would like to keep Cabrera with the team. As a second baseman.

I understand why Gardenhire would like to keep a person like Cabrera around, but from a player standpoint, I see little reasoning to it. Cabrera hasn't played more than a game at second base sine 1998 and he's a liability at the top of the lineup. If the Twins had an ideal number-two hitter to implant between Denard Span and Joe Mauer, I may be a little more open to it. But I would like to see someone that is better at getting on-base in that spot. Cabrera played well for the Twins down the stretch, but I'm sure that he's looking for a multi-year deal and that's not something I'd like to see the Twins offer a 35-year-old with a severely declined skill set.

Orlando Hudson - When taking in both offensive and defensive production, Hudson's been one of the most underrated second basemen in all of baseball this decade. Despite being on the wrong-side of 30, he still has proven to have a productive bat from both sides of the plate. Last season, Hudson hit .283/.357/.417 which was pretty similar to the triple-slash line that he put up as a 26-years-old in Toronto and nearly identical to his career hitting line.

The problem with Hudson these days isn't his bat, it's his defense. Yesterday, reports came out that Hudson won his fourth Gold Glove Award of his career. Although we won't know until later today if that's true, we've come to know that the award is based a lot of reputation than actual defensive standards. According to his UZR, Hudson has been considered below average defensively in both the last two seasons. But his defense was better in 2009 than it was in 2008 which could make some believe that he's on the rebound.

Hudson's injury risks and declining defense may make some want to keep away from signing him. Much like last off-season, Hudson heads into free agency with the lackluster 'Type-A' status hanging over his head, which immediately made me say, "no way, Jose!" But as John Bonnes points out, some teams may be against offering some of their players arbitration over fear of them accepting it. While I don't think the Dodgers would be distraught over Hudson accepting their arbitration proposal, they may be better advised to let him walk instead of offering him a large one-year offer. As Bonnes mentioned, Hudson was benched toward the end of last season after falling apart in September.

If the Dodgers don't offer arbitration to Hudson, I expect the Twins to make a big play for him. He's an ideal two-hole hitter and wouldn't cost a first round pick. Even with his declining defense, the Twins would be making a mistake if they didn't look into him.

Placido Polanco
- Much like the same case between the Dodgers and Hudson, the Tigers have a tough decision to make whether or not to offer Polanco arbitration. Polanco also qualified as a Type-A free agent and the 34-year-old will look at the trouble that fellow 30+ year-old infielders have had trying to ink a contract and could choose to stay in MoTown. And the Tigers aren't as prepared as the Dodgers in the event that Polanco does accept arbitration. The reason is that Scott Sizemore is slatted to start at second for the Tigers in 2010 and it probably isn't worth the risk to offer Polanco arbitration.

Despite his age, Polanco is still very valuable defensively and was awarded the second Gold Glove of his career yesterday. According to UZR, Polanco saved 11.4 runs with his glove this season, the highest in baseball. Polanco also is a pest at the plate and could be an interesting bat to have between Span and Mauer. Although he doesn't walk a ton, he's hard to strike out and makes a lot of contact. Polanco, like Hudson, should also be on the Twins' radar if he's not offered arbitration.

Brandon Phillips
- Unlike the other options, Philips would need to be acquired through a trade instead of free agency. The Reds are believed to be cutting costs this off-season which makes players such as Phillips vulnerable to be traded. He's set to make $29.75 million over the next three years but doesn't turn 30 until the middle of the 2011 season. Phillips isn't an ideal two-hole hitter, but he's a good right-handed bat with pop. He also plays very strong defense and was recognized with a Gold Glove in 2008.

Unfortunately, the Twins already have several eight-figure players on the team already and should they add Phillips, they'd be adding two more for 2011 with Michael Cuddyer's option being picked up. If the Twins planned on shedding some salary between now and then, it might make some sense, but I don't see the Twins adding a player like Phillips right now.

So there are several other players that have been discussed throughout the Twins Blogosphere. I still think that Felipe Lopez would be a good fit, but there are certainly other intriguing options that could make sense for the Twins.

Tuesday, November 10, 2009

Off-Season Blueprint: Letting Go (The Joe Crede Edition)

Not even a year ago, the Twins signed Joe Crede to be a one-year stopgap at third base while the organization waits for Danny Valencia to make his way up. The deal was a great opportunity for Crede to prove to other ball clubs that he was fully healed from back surgery and and worthy of a long-term contract.

Unfortunately, things didn't quite work out the way either side wanted. Valencia isn't quite ready and Crede hurt himself, eliminating any chances he had of joining another team with a multi-year deal. And although one would expect that the Twins and Crede would part ways, the contrary seems to be likely. The Twins and Crede could both use one another for yet another season.

Many believe that Valencia could probably handle the starting job right out of Spring Training, but the Twins' ultra-conservative approach with position prospects makes that a pipe dream at this point-in-time. That leaves an possibility for the Twins and Crede could be able to find a way to keep the 31-year-old in Minnesota for another year.

Any contract would likely be a one-year deal with similar incentives from his last contract. His last deal had incentives that could bring his $2.5 million salary close to $7 million based on performance and playing time.

Crede seemingly enjoyed his time with the Twins and he was a good clubhouse fit. With a team that is likely to lose veterans such as Mike Redmond and Orlando Cabrera (among others), the Twins need to keep some of the clubhouse charisma that it has. When Crede was able to play, he proved to be a very valuable defender while putting up a putrid .225/.289/.414 hitting line. But on a brighter note, he did have 16 doubles, 15 home runs and 48 RBI in 333 at-bats.

Crede underwent back surgery at the end of September and has supposedly felt very good at this point in the recovery. But when he's had three procedures on his back since 2007, it's a huge risk in any way, shape or form when dealing with a guy like him. Thankfully, he has expressed interest of staying in Minnesota and would probably accept a similar deal that brought him here in the first place.

Personally, I've always liked Crede and enjoyed him with the Twins (when he could play), but I think that the Twins would be better off going after a high on-base guy at either second base or third base and letting Nick Punto play the last infield position. With JJ Hardy at shortstop, the Twins would have a very good defensive infield if they do decide to re-sign Crede. And really, I wouldn't be outraged if they did decide to bring him back.

But it does scare me to think of another year of wasting the second spot in the lineup ahead of guys like Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau.

Friday, November 6, 2009

Trade Evaluation: Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy

Now that everyone is starting to calm down over the initial reports of dealing fan-favorite Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy, it's time to evaluate the trade from several angles.

Twins

This trade from a Twins perspective is good. While Gomez is one of the best defensive outfielders in the league, he yielded playing time in center field to Denard Span and when Delmon Young started hitting late in the season, Gomez saw seldom playing time. The Twins clearly didn't value Gomez's defense enough to make up for his putrid offense. Which obviously made him expendable.

The Twins being able to pry Hardy from the Brewers without having to give up more than Gomez looks to be an initial 'win' for Minnesota. Hardy was once viewed as 'untouchable' with the likes of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, but poor play and the emergence of Alcides Escobar ultimately forced the Brewers hand. The Twins having gaping holes everywhere except for first base in the infield. Hardy fufills a hole at shortstop while Nick Punto likely fills another hole at either second or third base.

To add: Peter brought up a good point in the comment sections. Baseball has a lot to do with marketing and while Gomez was a fan-favorite in the Twin Cities, Hardy has been known to be a fan-favorite in Wisconsin and I'm sure (from a marketing perspective) the Twins aren't losing a ton while potentially gaining a lot of marketability in Hardy.

Brewers

The Brewers, as mentioned, felt the need to trade Hardy now while he still has some value left. But had they traded him prior to the July trade deadline, the Brewers probably would have gotten quite a bit more in return. With Mat Gamel making his way to the Majors and Casey McGehee emerging as an option the Brewers thoughts of moving Hardy to third base didn't seem like a viable option anymore. With no room left for Hardy in the infield, the Brewers knew heading into the off-season that they'd have to move one of them to fill in another position of need.

Pitching seemed to be the likely position they'd target in a trade. Mike Cameron is a free agent and seemed likely to test the free agent waters, so the Brewers decided to not waste any time in findinig his replacement. They go from an older good defensive outfielder to a younger, better defensive outfielder. Unfortunately they'll miss Cameron's bat, but if Gomez can reach his potential, they'll be plenty pleased with what Gomez can bring to the table. A fine move on the Brewers behalf.

Now what?

Despite what I mentioned earlier, Bill Smith mentioned that this will mean the end of Orlando Cabrera's time in Minnesota. Smith also mentioned that Nick Punto will likely play either second base or third base which means the club could look to add one of the two. Punto can play either position adequately so the Twins have plenty of options. Right now, the lineup would likely be:

That lineup (to many) would be great, but it unfortunately makes me cringe. Why? Because the thought of Hardy batting second makes me want to puke. He has a career .323 on-base percentage and last season, he got on base 30.2% of the time, which is not good enough for the two-hole. The Twins are notorious for wasting the number two spot in the lineup and when you have guys at number one and three in the lineup that get on-base at a high clip, the two-hole shouldn't be any different.

In order to optimize the lineup we have, I think it's pretty clear that the Twins need to add a player that is a better fit in the two-hole than what Hardy is. In turn, the Twins will be able to stretch their lineup out, allowing Hardy to slide down to number seven in the lineup.

Even after this latest trade, the Twins still have several trading chips that could interest other teams. They also have a few options they can pursue via free agency. One player that would fit the role perfectly would be Chone Figgins, but acquiring him is probably not realistic. To me, the best fit would be Felipe Lopez.

After struggling to crack the lineup as a regular in Toronto, the Blue Jays traded Lopez to Cincinnati prior to the 2003 season. The Reds got similar production from Lopez in both 2003 and 2004 as he backed-up Barry Larkin. Larkin retired prior to the 2005 season and the Reds gave Lopez an opportunity to start. He finished the season hitting .291/.352/.486 with 62 extra-base hits including 23 home runs.

But Lopez was traded to the Washington Nationals in the middle of the 2006 season and he fell off the face of the earth during his two years spent in the nation's capital and the Nationals decided to trade him during the 2008 season to the St. Louis Cardinals. Something started clicking for Lopez in St. Louis and he carried it with him as a free agent in 2009 to the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Diamondbacks were out of contention at the trade deadline and dealt him to the Milwaukee Brewers where he continued to rip the cover off of the ball.

Lopez isn't an All-Star by any means, but he's a solid defensive second baseman and can fill in at third base if needed. He also has a .392 OBP since the middle of the 2008 season which can't be ignored. Lopez signed a one-year $3.5 million deal with the Diamondbacks last off-season and is likely to receive a substantial pay raise this time around.

Lopez is still on the good side of 30, which means he'll likely be getting a multi-year contract. The Twins don't look to have anyone close to the Majors who would be threatening to take over second base anytime soon so if they wanted to explore a two or three-year deal with Lopez, it'd be a good decision. Signing Lopez to a two-years and $12 million with a third year option of $8 million would be a great move for the Twins.

It'd also give us a lineup like this:


And the best part? The Twins can do this without having to break the bank for someone like Figgins. In fact, according to the TwinsCentric GM Handbook, this would give the Twins a payroll around $87 million. Even if the Twins added $7-8 million onto Mauer's contract extension (if they do sign him to an extension), the Twins would still be within what their self-imposed salary cap would be, which is believed to be between $90-100.

And the Twins could still have a few million to work with in signing a starting pitcher. A good risk for the Twins would be to look into Ben Sheets as a free agent. He likely could be signed for under $2 million (without incentives) and could be a huge boost to this rotation.

The point I'm trying to get across is that the Twins still have a lot of options on how they want to finish off this roster and while re-signing Mauer remains the top priority, it's great to see the Twins not waste any time acquiring new players.

Breaking News: Twins trade Carlos Gomez for JJ Hardy

The Twins and Brewers have reportedly agreed to a trade that would send Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee in exchange for JJ Hardy.

This move isnt' a surprise as both players have been mentioned in rumors over the course of this last season. The surprise is that the Twins pulled the trigger on it so quickly. Although I still think that this doesn't necessarily means the end for Orlando Cabrera in Minnesota (as Hardy can play third base), this could make the next few weeks interesting as we head into free agency.

I personally would have loved to keep Gomez on the team as I still think that at this time, he's a much more valuable commodity than Delmon Young, but I understand the Twins' reasoning for getting rid of him. Unfortunately, the Twins over-value Denard Span's offense in center field and unless Young gains some speed over the off-season, I don't know how I feel about the Twins' outfield (defensively) heading into next season.

Regardless, this move is good for both teams and seeing the Twins strike early is a great thing to see. And I'm sure the ladies will love having both Hardy and Joe Mauer on the same team... oh brother.

Stay tuned...

Thursday, November 5, 2009

Off-Season Blueprint: Letting Go (The Mike Redmond Edition)

After spending seven years with the Florida Marlins as a backup catcher, Mike Redmond came north to Minnesota to serve as Joe Mauer's primary backup. Redmond was already considered one of the best backups in all of baseball prior to coming to Minnesota, but he solidified that title with the Twins.

Redmond signed a two-year, $1.8 million deal with the Twins after the 2004 season. He later signed a three-year contract extension during the middle of the 2006 season. Over the last five years with Minnesota, Redmond has hit .297/.339/.359 while giving the team solid defense. But as Redmond got older, both his offense and defense declined drastically and he finished the last year of his contract hitting .237/.299/.289 while throwing out only 13% of runners, which were all career lows.

One would expect that all of these factors would be a clear-enough reason for Redmond to hang up the cleats, but think again. Redmond indicated near the end of the season that he's not yet ready to retire and plans on playing next season whether it be in Minnesota or not.

Down the stretch, Redmond yielded playing time to Jose Morales, who put up substantially better numbers. The 26-year-old Morales hit .311/.381/.361 with a 103 OPS+ in 54 games with the Twins this season. Not only is Morales better offensively, but he's becoming a better defender, which has held him back in years past.

As much of a fan-favorite Redmond has become, it'd make no sense to bring him back next season. While the Twins obviously place a lot of emphasis in veteran leadership, the Twins know that Redmond is a liability and cannot be counted on everyday. Not only that, but he stands to make twice as much as Morales while giving a fraction of the production.

As great as it'll someday be to see Redmond waving runners around third base at Target Field, the Twins need to let him finish off his career somewhere else and move on with Morales.

Tuesday, November 3, 2009

Off-Season Blueprint: Letting Go (The Carl Pavano Edition)

To carry-on with the discussions on who the Twins should bring back, Carl Pavano is the next to be discussed. After failing to acquire a starting pitcher at the July trade deadline, most fans grew huffy and puffy at Bill Smith who despite trading for Orlando Cabrera hadn't really done a whole lot to improve the team.

But as Twins fans found out this season, August may be more active than July. The Twins hit the waiver wire hard in August and acquired three pitchers, including Pavano. After establishing himself as a solid middle-of-the-rotation starter with the Florida Marlins, the New York Yankees handed Pavano nearly $40 million over four years. But the injury bug hit Pavano and the right-hander threw only 145 2/3 innings for the Yankees over four years.

The Yankees declined an $13 million option on Pavano heading into the 2009 season and he later latched on with the Cleveland Indians who gave him a one-year deal worth $1.5 million. He was later placed on waivers in August where the Twins claimed him. To complete the trade, the Twins had to surrender Yohan Pino, which seemed a little steep, but eventually Twins fans supported the deal and most became big Pavano supporters.

Not only did Pavano pitch well against the Detroit Tigers, he also made a great start in the playoffs against the Yankees. Pavano finally started to prove to people that he can stay healthy for an entire season and is an option to sign for more than one year. The Twins loved the influence he had on the young pitching staff and also loved the results they got from Pavano.

With Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn the only pitchers that have really established themselves as mainstays in the rotation, the Twins do have some flexibility with the rest of their rotation. The majority believe that the Twins will have a rotation compiled of both Baker and Blackburn with Kevin Slowey and Brian Duensing filling out the rest of the staff. That leaves several internal options that could take that last spot including Glen Perkins, Jeff Manship and Francisco Liriano. But the general consensus is that the Twins will look outside the rotation to fill that final spot.

That's obviously where Pavano comes into play. Should the Twins re-sign him and go forward with the same rotation that essentially got them into the playoffs?

Personally, much like in the case with Cabrera, I personally would rather see the Twins attempt to improve the rotation before settling for Pavano. While Pavano is a nice back-end starter, I fear that the Twins will move forward without seriously improving the position that held them back for much of last season.

According to estimates from our friends at TwinsCentric.com, Pavano may very well get at least $6 million a season, which to me isn't the problem. The problem comes when I think of the Twins being in the same position that they were in much of last season; great offense with poor starting pitching. And when I think of that, I see Pavano being at the forefront of the problem.

Despite putting up decent numbers this season, I am not in any way very optimistic about him being the kind of pitcher the Twins need, which is a front-end (#2-type of) starter. While I'm sure Pavano has finally turned a leaf and is truly ready to be a stable starter in a rotation, I think he's still a #4 starter at this point and I think the Twins would be better suited going after a player with more upside.

I sadly don't see John Lackey as a realistic option for the Twins, but guys like Erik Bedard, Rich Harden or Ben Sheets could fit the bill. All of those guys mentioned carry a big warning sign around their neck, but all fit the bill. All three would likely accept one or two year deals as well, which is probably what the Twins are ideally looking for.

And if the Twins are serious about improving the team, maybe a guy like Lackey would be on their radar. The TwinsCentric crew estimates a four-year $56 million being what it takes to nab Lackey. But given the weakness of this year's free agent class, I'm sure several teams will be biding for Lackey's services and we could very well see him get a six year, $80 million deal from someone. But of course, it's anyone's guess at this point.

If the free agent market fails, the Twins could also target a player through a trade. Javier Vazquez's name could come up this off-season while the Braves try to add Major League hitters. Unfortunately, I'm not sure the Twins have the pieces it'd take to acquire Vazquez, at least not without going overboard. Guys like Derek Lowe and Bronson Arroyo may be more realistic. But I'm not really that giddy about either of those guys either.

But to me, the best way the Twins could improve their rotation will be through free agency. Although I'd like to see the Twins move away from Pavano, I think the Twins will make a serious effort to re-sign him and with that said, I'll be surprised to see him with a different club next season.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

Off-Season Blueprint: Letting Go (The Orlando Cabrera Edition)

With the Joe Mauer situation on the back-burner, the Twins now can turn their attention to which of their internal free agents they would like to retain for the next season. With five guys slated for free agency, the Twins will obviously have to make the tough decisions on who they should bring back and who they shouldn't.

Orlando Cabrera was acquired just hours before last July's trade deadline. The Twins sent prospect Tyler Ladendorf to the Oakland Athletics in exchange for the 34-year-old shortstop. At the time, many expected a move such as this to help appease the vocal, veteran players. But Cabrera was just the beginning of what would be a very busy two week period in which the Twins would add four more players to help down the stretch.

With the Twins, Cabrera hit in the two-hole and put up a triple-slash line of .285/.309/.426 with 21 extra-base hits in 59 games. Had Cabrera put up a higher on-base percentage, I would probably be more anxious to bring him back, but someone who gets on base 31% of the time is a liability in the two-hole. Another thing that doesn't excite me about Cabrera is his quick decline in defense. Cabrera went from being one of the best defensive shortstops in the game to one of the worst. Could it have just been a down season? Perhaps. But having an off-year at 34 doesn't really suggest that he's likely to turn it around.

But with all that said, I'll be surprised if the Twins don't bring him back. The Twins love the energy and leadership he brings to the team and by all accounts, Cabrera loved his time with the Twins. Cabrera also had a positive influence on a couple of the Spanish-speaking players on the team, primarily Carlos Gomez and Alexi Casilla. Both players are underachievers and would benefit from more bonding from a mentor like Cabrera. Cabrera was hurt badly by a down economy and his Type-A status last off-season but was determined to not get hurt by it again and negotiated in his contract that if he were to gain Type-A status again, his former team wouldn't be able to offer him arbitration. And of course, Cabrera indeed looks to be a Type-A free agent which means that if he leaves, the Twins will not get any compensation in return.

Although I think Cabrera is a fine player to have at the bottom of the lineup, I can't stand the thought of the Twins wasting him between Denard Span and Mauer. Although I would be surprised if he doesn't return, I personally hope he's the Twins' backup option while they search for a younger, better player. If he does return, I won't be that upset because I do feel that he can be a valuable player. But I do want to see either shortstop or second base improve. So if he does return, I want to see an upgrade at second base.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Off-Season Blueprint: Step One

The Minnesota Twins season ended after one of the best comebacks anyone could have ever imagined. But poor plays and bad calls consumed their time in the playoffs and unfortunately were knocked out by the New York Yankees after just three games.

The Twins played great down the stretch when it mattered. And I know some argue that the Tigers just merely blew it (making the argument that they blew it more than we won it), but really it's a rhetorical question and in the end it doesn't matter. Both can be right. And although many are still mourning the early playoff exit, which is obviously understandable, they should also be prepared for what should be the most exciting next 12 months in Twins history.

Although we've all been disappointed in the lack of off-season activity before (cough, last year), all signs point to the Twins being fairly active this off-season (like we haven't heard that before). I advise many to take that with a grain of salt to save what could be a big disappointment, but if this July and August were any precursor to what this off-season could hold, then we could all be pleasantly surprised.

First and foremost, the most pressing issue is obviously getting Joe Mauer re-signed. The Twins may have been interested in re-signing him last off-season but they took the chance on his back issues lowering his value which we all know didn't happen. Although we all dream that he'll sign for a "hometown discount" because he's gone on record to say that he's not really interested in being the highest paid guy, we all need to also understand that he could merely be saying that from a PR stand point and could still very well put himself out of the Twins' price range.

Regardless of which way you look at it, I don't think anyone should feel at all comfortable about the future of Mauer's in Minnesota until he's signed. I personally don't believe he'll leave and I think a deal will get done, but I also thought the same would be true of both Torii Hunter and Johan Santana. Completely understanding that those two don't draw the same kind of ties Mauer does to Minnesota, they both went on record several times stating their desire to stay in Minnesota and for one reason or another; whether it be the front office's or the player's fault, both aren't with the Twins anymore because of money. Needless to say, I sadly can't say I'd be completely surprised if Mauer wasn't playing in Minnesota in 2011. But with that said, I also understand that the Twins understand Mauer's value and with respect to both Santana and Hunter, I think we can all agree that Mauer is a better player than either of them. Which in part is why I do feel optimistic about a deal getting done. Well... that... and the fact that I'm sure that 99% of their fan base will participate in some kind of boycott.

So what could it take? Obviously that's a question everyone wishes they could answer and I'm sure not even Mauer knows at this point. Personally, I believe it'll be something around 8-years and $165 million. In comparison, that would be the fourth largest contract in baseball history. Is that a good deal (hypothetically, obviously)? It's safe to say that he could probably get more than that on the free agent market which would obviously mean he's taking a "discount" (if you want to call $165 million a discount). So from that aspect, yes. And with some speculation of a 2010 payroll somewhere between $90 and $100 million, it looks as though the Twins will be able to afford him at this price (or even slightly more than the $165 million). But how much more might the Twins be willing to go?

If Mauer all of a sudden wakes up one morning and wants to Dream Like New York (like Tyrone Wells) and demands a contract somewhere along the lines of 8-years and $200 million, I can't say I see the Twins re-signing him. Obviously that's a bit more than my proposed deal, but that invisible 'line' that separates the two isn't really far off from either one.

Regardless if you agree with me or not regarding dollar amounts, the point of all this is that nothing else can - or should, for that matter - be decided until Mauer is extended. Last month, I wrote:

...it's a pretty safe assumption that nothing will get done until number seven is signed, and while I hope it gets done early, I'm unfortunately expecting it to drag on throughout the off-season which could give the front office plenty of excuses why they're not more aggressive on the market.
And sadly, I know that this is still a big probability.

***

Since we're on the subject of playing GM, I think this is the right time to tell everyone of an awesome product. The Twins Centric group of writers have just released an eBook called the TwinsCentric Offseason GM Handbook. The writers of the book are fellow Twins bloggers Seth Stohs (of Seth Speaks), Parker Hageman (of Over the Baggy), John Bonnes (the Twins Geek) and Nick Nelson (of Nick's Twins Blog), so obviously you already know you're getting great content. The four of them give you an overwhelming amount of information over 137 pages in which they put you in the seat of the Twins' GM. They give you a look at potential trade targets, free agents and other hot topics that concern the Twins. It's a great way to support the Twins blogosphere and I know you won't be disappointed.

And if you get over there quick, they're giving a free preview of 1/3 of the book.

Monday, October 12, 2009

Award Predictions: MVP

Last week, I gave my picks for both the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young awards, and today I'll finish it out by awarding my (obvious) MVP votes.

As I said, these picks are pretty obvious and therefore don't need a lot of explaining...

National League

If you're wondering who the best player in baseball is, it's without a doubt Albert Pujols. For those of you not taking advantage of watching as much of him as possible, you're truly missing out. Baring injury, Pujols may go down as one of the two or three best hitters to ever play this game, which is saying quite a bit considering he's never been connected to performance-enhancing drugs in an era littered with controversy.

This season, Pujols had one month in which he didn't have an OPS of 1.000. He didn't hit for nearly as much power in the second half of the season, but he finished the year with 47 home runs, which still lead the majors. Some were worried about Pujols' surgically-repaired elbow giving him fits heading into the season, but that obviously proved to not be the case.

Pujols has already won the MVP award twice in his career and unless something unthinkable happens, this should be his third MVP award in the last eight years.

Runner-Up: Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
Who'll Likely Win: Albert Pujols - 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
Pre-Season Pick: Manny Ramirez - LF - Los Angeles Dodgers


American League

Again, no surprise here. I'd like to say I predicted this, but I honestly can't say I did. Joe Mauer put up unreal numbers this season. Many doubted his ability to hit for power and actually heald a grudge against him for not being able to, and how did he respond? He went to the Home Run Derby for the first time in his career. And although he didn't win, he did pretty good for a guy with a career-high 13 home runs heading into the season. And just to show the type of season Mauer had, he nearly matched his career-high in home runs (13) in his first month of the season by hitting 11. He more-than doubled his career high in home runs with 28 on the season, which also helped him drive in a career high 96 RBI, despite missing the entire month of April.

What Mauer did offensively is oustanding, and when you factor in that he won his third batting title in four season, it makes it all the more impressive. Mauer flirted with .400 for much of the first half, but ultimately had to settle for a career-best .368 average.

Maybe I jumped the gun by saying that Pujols is the best player in baseball, because I don't know how much better you can get than Mauer. While Pujols may go down as one of the best hitters in the history of the game, Mauer may go down as the best catcher ever. And what's even more impressive is that Mauer has accomplished this much before even turning 27-years-old. The best of Mauer may be coming, which should scare opposing pitchers.

Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira - 1B - New York Yankees
Who'll Likely Win: Joe Mauer - C - Minnesota Twins
Pre-Season Pick: Josh Hamilton - OF - Texas Rangers

Friday, October 9, 2009

Award Predictions: Cy Young

Yesterday, I posted my choice for the Rookie of the Year for both the American and National Leagues, so today I'll keep the ball rolling with the Cy Young award.

National League

I honestly can't remember a time in which a league has three pitchers are so close to one another in the Cy Young voting. While there is one guy that likely won't win it, he does need to be mentioned. Adam Wainwright had an outstanding season in which he lead the National League with 19 wins and 233 innings pitched. He also finished in the top five in ERA, and while most years those numbers would certainly be enough, he'll likely finish third this season in Cy Young voting.

To me, it's really a coin flip between Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, and a case could certainly be made for both. And I'm going to take the easy way out and say that these two are both equally deserving of this award and should share it.

I know players sharing an award is pretty lame and probably won't gain much support, but I couldn't choose one over the other. On one hand, Lincecum is the most dominant pitcher in baseball and was in the top five in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched and WHIP. After winning the award in 2008 with outstanding numbers, he improved in most of his statistical categories this season. He lowered his walks, ERA, WHIP and BAA.



As for Carpenter, what he did this season may be more impressive as he had only appeared in five games - prior to this season - since 2006. After winning the Cy Young award in 2005, he had a successful 2006 season but fell short of defending his title. After injuring his elbow on Opening Day in 2007, he took a few months off to rehab before ultimately undergoing Tommy John Surgery in the middle of the 2007 season. He returned late in 2008 and put up great numbers in limited action, but nobody expected his first season back from surgery to be this successful.

This season, Carpenter lead the National League in ERA and finished in the top five in Wins and WHIP. He only gave up more than four runs two times this season. If he could take back those two starts, he would have been 17-2 with a 1.73 ERA. That's not a reasoning to vote for him, but it does go to show just how good he was. One thing that will hurt Carpenter is having his teammate stealing away votes from him.

I don't know who'll win this one. I think that most voters will go with Carpenter because of leading the league in ERA, having more wins than Lincecum and also being on a winning team. But I think it's a really close race that will be one to pay attention to.

Runner-Up: Adam Wainwright - P - St. Louis Cardinals
Who'll Likely Win: Chris Carpenter - P - St. Louis Cardinals.
Pre-Season Pick: Rich Harden - P - Chicago Cubs


American League

Unlike the National League, this race isn't even really close. And although many people will name a few guys that should be mentioned, there is just one player that is far and away the clear winner. And it's no surprise that it's Zack Greinke.

There was no pitcher in baseball this season or even in the past couple of seasons that put up numbers like Greinke did, and had Greinke been on a team other than the Royals, his numbers would have been even more impressive. Why is that? Because while he did win 16 games, he also lost eight times. So what? Well out of those eight times, in four of those games he gave up three runs or fewer. He also had eight no decisions in which he gave up three runs or fewer. On average, he received less than four runs of support in his starts which is just attrocious.

Greinke put up remarkable numbers and it's amazing to think that in 2006, Greinke nearly walked away from the game at the age of 22. He took most of the 2006 season off for personal reasons but returned in 2007 and was ready to show-off his skills. Greinke has always had enormous potential and it's great that he's finally showcasing it. Greinke seems to be in favor of staying away from the larger markets as he's a very personal guy who doesn't like the attention, so unfortunately, his biggest opponent will likely remain his own team from now until the Royals get a better lineup.

Runner-Up: Felix Hernandez - P - Seattle Mariners
Who'll Likely Win: Zack Greinke - P - Kansas City Royals
Pre-Season Pick: Roy Halladay - P - Toronto Blue Jays