September 27, 2009

Showdown in Motown

The Twins took two of three games against the Kansas City Royals while the Detroit Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox, allowing the Twins to pull within two games of the division leading Tigers.

The Twins are playing their best baseball of the season this month while the Tigers continue to take a sharp nosedive. After winning the first six games of the month, the Tigers are now 8-11 since September 8th. In that span, they've been outscored 84 to 98 and have scored two or fewer runs in six of the 19 games. Meanwhile, since September 7th (their last 19 games), the Twins are 13-6 and have outscored their opponents 103 to 73.

The Twins are 'clicking' both at the plate and on the mound, which is completely the opposite for the Tigers. Joe Christensen from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune posted a possible outcome table. And as you can tell, the Twins need a series victory in order to have a realistic shot at winning the division. If they tie, they'll need all the luck in the world to win. And of course if they loose three or four games, the Twins will be eliminated.

The Twins and Tigers faced off against one another at the Metrodome two weekends ago where the Twins won two of three. Unforunately, they aren't at home and will have to try and win at Comerica Park, a place the Tigers have won 65% of their games played there. The Twins on-the-otherhand have a winning percentage of 47% on the road this season.

On paper, the pitching matchups sure look to favor the Tigers. Even without Edwin Jackson starting, the Tigers have their Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander starting on Wednesday with their Rookie of the Year candidate Rick Porcello going on Monday. But Carl Pavano has been a Tiger killer this season and Brian Duensing has been outstanding since joining the rotation. So couple them with the teams best two pitchers, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, gives me reason to feel optimistic about the matchups.

The Tigers offense is strong, but the Twins offense has been getting great production from their eight and nine hitters in the lineup. Both Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert continue to swing hot bats this month despite being despicable at the plate throughout the season. Tolbert has been hitting primarily eighth and playing third base since joining the lineup and is hitting .381/.395/.500 in 42 September at-bats. Punto has been playing second base and hitting ninth, but has a .310/.437/.397 hitting line through 58 at-bats this month. Both were big reasons why Denard Span drove in six runs on Saturday.

Two players the Twins will surely miss in this series will be Joe Crede and Justin Morneau. The two have been Tiger mashers throughout their careers but both are out for the season with injuries. Instead, the Twins will rely on both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel (besides Joe Mauer, of course) to carry the load in the middle-of-the-lineup. While Cuddyer's having a great month, he hasn't put up great numbers against Detroit throughout his career. Kubel has hit terribly all month, which could be of result from him playing in right field on a near day-to-day basis. He is actually zero for his last 13. Thankfully the Twins have Span, Mauer and even Delmon Young who have all hit well against the Tigers.

The Twins have been playing great these past few weeks, but the pressure is definitely on right now. The Tigers have a lot of things that could give them an edge here and there, but if the Twins continue to play the way they have, it should be a good week for Twins baseball.

***

On the side...

I've been slackin' on the blog as of late. I can't promise more frequent posts in the near future, but I'm definitely not giving up on the site (in case anyone was wondering).

But I do have a few things to mention.

Chris Jaffe from The Hardball Times wrote a great article last week in which he lists his 10 greatest games in the Metrodome. If you read the comment section, I felt there was one more worth mentioning. But it's a great article and one I hope everyone takes a few minutes to read. While the Metrodome hasn't been the best home, it's certainly had some great memories.

Andrew Kneeland is now blogging at TwinsTarget.com. In fact, he's already posted his first One-on-One with Dan Osterbrock which I hope everyone checks out. David Gorski is now blogging at Twins Fix (Andrew's old site) and is doing a great job so far.

Seth Stohs has been hosting a live podcast almost every night this past week. So if you're looking for some great Twins talk, make sure to check out some of his past shows.

Brian Pietrzak wrote a great review of The Machine, written by everybody's favorite writer, Joe Posanski. I already have my copy but I am going to finish up The Soul of Baseball (also written by Posnanski) first.

And finally, while he's been blogging for a few weeks now, I wanted to mention that Shawn Berg has started a blog called On the road with... Make sure to head over there now as he's posting his good and bad Twins memories.

And finally, you can find me on Twitter at Twitter.com/JoshsThoughts or feel free to e-mail me at jajohnson021@yahoo.com

September 18, 2009

The Twins' Outfield Dilemma

Ron Gardenhire recently talked about his logjam in the outfield and what he plans to do with it in 2010. Gardenhire admitted that it's been a challenge this season to give everyone enough playing time and said that he's tired of shifting lead-off hitter Denard Span around the outfield. Thus far, Span has logged in 1126 1/3 innings in the outfield this season. 39% of that time has been spent in left field, 43% in center and the final 18% in right field. All in all, Span has a UZR/150 of 0.6, down from his UZR/150 of 3.9 in 2008.

Offensively, Span is very valuable and there's a reason Gardenhire is feeling the need to give him a 'set' position. He is 10th in the American League with a .389 OBP, which also ranks him third in the Majors among lead-off hitters. Span also takes (on average) nearly four pitches per plate appearance, which also is near the league lead among lead-off hitters. There's no question that Span is an integral part to this ball clubs success. The question is, where do you play him?

Gardenhire reportedly hinted at leaving Span in center field next season, but he quickly mentioned that it'll depend on who is still with the ball club, obviously making us assume that one of Carlos Gomez or Delmon Young will be traded this off-season.

Over the last two seasons, I've let my 'favorite' be known. But at least right now, I'm having a hard time choosing between which I'd prefer to keep. While I still believe one player has more potential than the other, I also recognize that one provides a valuable commodity to this ball club that is useful regardless of his putrid offense.

It seems as though many of Young's problems stem (mostly) from poor mechanics. However, he hasn't fixed those mechanics and has not garnered any reason for me to believe that he's going to turn it around other than just using the same old excuse, that he still has a lot of potential. Young is now three (full) seasons into his MLB career and is regressing instead of progressing. Obviously it's too early to abandon ship on a (recently turned) 24-year-old, but it's getting harder and harder to support him.

As for Gomez, his defense is the reason the Twins traded for him, fully knowing his offense is very (very) raw. I have thought for a while that Gomez should be sent back to Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and just the 'basics' at the plate (as in, don't swing at a pitch coming near your head, how to lay down a bunt, etc.). But that obviously wasn't in the Twins' plans and they now have wasted an entire year for both Young and Gomez. What exactly have either of them gained from sharing at-bats and starts this season? At 23-years-old, they should just be reaching the Major Leagues (a problem that was out of the Twins' hands). But the Twins felt it was more valuable to have both play only three days a week while the other just sits there... and does nothing.

To me, the Twins should have sent Gomez to Triple-A right out of Spring Training. Although Gomez had a solid triple-slash line this Spring, the Twins were delusional if they felt that he had completely turned the corner after last season. And even so, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since nobody knew how Span would play after a terrible spring and season in which he seemingly came out of nowhere. But don't you think that after a month of April in which he hit .195/.250/.293 in 16 games was enough to finally make the (right) move? Of course not.

Instead, the Twins have made both young, raw, yet-gifted players sit on the bench and learn the game by watching. And unless they're trying to mold these guys into being coaches, I don't see much benefit from a hitter sitting on the bench and not getting regular at-bats. Gardenhire throwing them batting practice is not enough. Especially for aggressive hitters like Young and Gomez.

The Twins shouldn't be even faced with a dilemma of any sort. Instead, they should have let Gomez and Young both have the playing time they deserve and after the season, move one of them. It's likely that one of the two would have stepped up if given the proper opportunity and instead, the Twins are now faced with a dilemma on which one to give up on. If both played great, we'd still likely have to move one, but it wouldn't be a dilemma, at least in my opinion. But this is a dilemma because both have little trade value and the Twins will be abandoning ship on a young player with little-to-no return value, and a player they gave up a lot for.

The Twins shot themselves in the foot on this one.

September 9, 2009

An early look into the not-so-distant future.

Several weeks ago, before I lost all of my free time to school, I answered a few questions that Peter Bourgeois sent in to me.

Since then, the Twins have been very busy signing draft picks, upgrading their bullpen and pulling back within manageable distance of the division crown when, at the time, it looked as though they were done for. Unfortunately, the Twins are now sitting five games behind the Tigers with just 29 games remaining, seven of which are against Detroit.

But even with a good month left of baseball to be played, everyone is gearing up for what could be the most exciting off-season in Minnesota Twins history. Despite a fairly weak free agent class, the Twins will have money to spend. But how much is the question. Last week, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune hosted a live chat, and this caught my eye:
12:15 [Comment From Next Year]
How do the Twins improve the club for next year and will they spend any of that new stadium money?
12:16

La Velle:
They better. With raises through long-term deals and arbitration,the payroll should go up. I had a conversation recently with a Twins official who estimated the payroll could top $90 million next year and head toward $95-100M.

I've speculated on this in the past. The Twins have a similar market (actually, if we're getting down to the specifics, it's larger) than that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Obviously just because they spend money doesn't mean we have to, but I've always felt that the Twins could spend at least as much as them. After all, the Twins are going to be moving into a new stadium which will be packed full of Twins fans almost every night, much like the Cardinals and their new stadium.

But La Velle hearing from a 'Twins official' is probably a good indicator that other people feel this way as well. While I'll still be surprised to see the Twins raise their payroll nearly $30 million in just a few months, I do think that over the next three or four years, $90 or even northwards of $100 million isn't completely out of the question.

As for the 2010 season, here's how the roster looks (please note, these are just my calculations and shouldn't be taken as 100% accurate, or for that matter, anywhere near that):
Hitters:
C: Joe Mauer - $12,500,000
C: Jose Morales - $400,000
1B: Justin Morneau - $14,000,000
2B: Alexi Casilla - $460,000
IF: Brendan Harris - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
IF: Nick Punto - $4,000,000
IF: Matt Tolbert - $460,000
IF: Brian Buscher - $460,000
OF: Delmon Young - $1,700,000 (Arbitration guess)
OF: Denard Span - $460,000
OF: Michael Cuddyer - $8,500,000
OF: Carlos Gomez - $460,000
DH: Jason Kubel - $4,100,000

Other possibilities: Jason Pridie - $400,000, Trevor Plouffe - $400,000,
Hitting total: $49,550,000

Pitchers:
SP: Scott Baker - $3,000,000
SP: Nick Blackburn - $460,000
SP: Kevin Slowey - $460,000
SP: Francisco Liriano - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
SP: Glen Perkins - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)

Other possibilities: Brian Duensing - $400,000, Jeff Manship - $400,000, Anthony Swarzak - $400,000

RP: Joe Nathan - $11,250,000
RP: Jon Rauch - $2,900,000
RP: Matt Guerrier - $2,500,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Jesse Crain - $2,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Jose Mijares - $460,000
RP: Boof Bonser - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Pat Neshek - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)

Other possibilities: Bobby Keppel - $460,000

Pitching total: $29,940,000
Obviously, not all of the serf contracts are quite accurate and the arbitration guesses are in fact just guesses. But as you can see, the Twins are already close to $80,000,000 ($79,490,000), which isn't including any free agent pick ups or taking into factor any extensions they may give to some of their current players. With Joe Mauer expecting to earn a substantial pay raise, it's doubtful that the Twins add any elite players this off-season.

But even if they could afford an elite player, I would be surprised to see the Twins go out and sign one. One thing I've come to expect over the years while following the Twins is that what you think will happen probably won't. Now that's kind of a vague statement, but it is true. When I have figured the Twins would finally splurge in free agency, they have sat back and done nothing. When I expected them to do something (anything) at the trade deadline, they have sat back and done nothing. And when I don't expect them to do anything, they go out and make a run at players that would change the whole dynamic of the ball club. And for that reason, I can't and won't get my hopes up that the Twins will add anything this off-season.

Of course, the Twins could very well trade a few players, which I truly believe they will, but who and what is a complete mystery and something that will be discussed at another time.

And looking early, here are the key areas of concern that the Twins need to address this off-season:
Starting pitching: The Twins' Achilles heal this season has been their failure to execute (both at the plate and on the mound). But the Twins' pitching staff has given up so many runs this season that I really can't blame the offense for not scoring when they are currently ranked 8th in the Major Leagues in runs scored, opposed to the pitching staff having the 24th worst ERA. While they have scored 668 runs this season, the pitching staff has given up 657. Other than in walks, the Twins' pitching staff is below American League average in nearly every category.

Middle infield: It's no surprise to anyone that the biggest question mark regarding the offense is the hitters occupying both second base and shortstop. The Twins' second base play this year has been atrocious. So far, the Twins have fielded a .201/.285/.260 hitting line from their second basemen this season, by far the worst in the Major Leagues. Shortstop hasn't been nearly as bad, but that's not really saying a lot. The Twins have gotten terrible production from their shortstops this season. Both areas should be addressed.

It's easy to point fingers at Bill Smith and co. for not equipping Ron Gardenhire and the coaching staff with the appropriate players to win this season, but his hands are kind of tied. The 2008 Twins were a great story. Nobody expected anything from the team after losing players like Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva to the ever powerful color of green, but the pitching staff turned out to be outstanding while the offense looked outstanding. I don't blame Smith for not acquiring a big bat or another pitcher last off-season, because really, they didn't look as though they necessarily needed that much help. I thought the acquisition of Joe Crede was more than enough to keep the offense atop of the American League ranks while the pitching staff continued to develop.

Only, the pitching staff and for some part, the offense, got off to an unstable start and the offense was the only thing to finally figure things out. The pitching staff that once looked to be one of the best in the league quickly turned into one of the worst. But nobody can be blamed for that. It's hard to predict pitching, especially young pitching. Smith did help bolster our bullpen, which while it's still rocky at times, it looks set for the future.

But this off-season, while I don't think the Twins will have the means to go out and acquire a top-end free agent, I do expect them to improve each area of weakness this team has. Last off-season was too hard to predict. We had one real weakness at third base which he ultimately (later than we probably would have hoped), found a solution. The rest of the squad looked solid heading into the season. Was it a Championship team? I don't know. It was strong enough to make the playoffs, that's for sure.

So now after another season with the reigns of GM, I expect things to be a little more active this off-season. Again, I honestly don't expect John Lackey or Matt Holiday to be Twins come next Spring, but could they acquire someone like J.J. Hardy or Mark DeRosa? It's at least more realistic.

The Twins are currently hovering around the 15th worst record in baseball, which as a Twins fan, is something we pay close attention to every year. If the Twins have one of the 15th worst records in baseball, their 1st round draft pick would not be surrendered if they chose to sign a Type-A free agent. At this point, that probably wouldn't be a bad thing to be in. The Twins are losing ground in the standings and although they keep holding on, at this point, it's very unlikely that they'll make the playoffs. While I'm not advocating that they throw games for the sole purpose to finish in the bottom-half of the standings, it wouldn't be the worst thing either.

But obviously, it's a pretty safe assumption that nothing will get done until number seven is signed, and while I hope it gets done early, I'm unfortunately expecting it to drag on throughout the off-season which could give the front office plenty of excuses why they're not more aggressive on the market.

I've grown more and more pessimistic over the summer and while I still love the Twins, I don't know if I have full faith in the front office or coaching staff to get this team to where it should be, which is at the top of the standings every year. The Twins might have the best hitting combination in baseball and one of the best overall players that has put on a jersey in this era, yet we have a hard time staying above .500 and play in a division with two deadbeat teams and no team that is stellar by any standards.

Something needs to change, and I truly hope that something happens this off-season to instill some of the faith that I may still have in this franchise.

September 2, 2009

Back

Hey everyone. I am finally getting things settled up at school which means that I should have more time to devote to the site from here on out. Thanks to a number of great Twins sites, I really don't feel the necessity to go into real depth on what I missed.

Rich Harden: It would have been nice to get him, but I'm happy the Twins didn't overpay for him. They'll have a shot at him in free agency. Definitely not worth two top prospects. Nice to see them stay aggressive though.

Brad Penny: I've never been a huge fan of his, and like Joe Christensen mentioned today, he probably thought the American League was too tough and wanted to get back to the 'senior circuit'.

Jon Rauch: Love this move. Although it cost the Twins Kevin Mulvey, I still think it's a win for the Twins. He's a good pitcher and he solidifies our bullpen for not only this season but for next season as well. Mulvey is a back-end starter, which the Twins have plenty of.

Ron Mahay: I also love this move. The Twins got him for pretty much nothing and he also comes in and gives us another viable arm for the bullpen.

And finally, can enough be said about Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing right now?

Go Twins!

August 21, 2009

Blog Update

Hey readers. Sorry for my lack of posting this week. I'm getting things ready for school. Next week I am pretty certain nothing will be posted so make sure to check out the links on the side of the page for your daily Twins fixation. So...how about that Joe Mauer, eh? He's pretty good. Anyways, from the words of Conan O'Brien, "keep cool my babies!"

Enjoy!



- Josh

August 17, 2009

Answering a few questions...

Over the weekend, I was e-mailed a few questions from long-time reader, Peter Bourgeois. But instead of e-mailing him back the questions, we both thought it'd be a fine idea to just let me answer them here, since they are all fairly 'hot topics' regarding the Twins.

So that's what I'll do. And just note, these are my opinion but I do encourage people to disagree with me.

***

What should be done with the rotation?

Right now, I think that both Nick Blackburn and Anthony Swarzak need to be taken out of the rotation in favor of Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing. And I also think that Francisco Liriano's spot is also in limbo, but I have no idea who should replace him. Kevin Mulvey? Armando Gabino? I have no idea. I just know that both Blackburn and Swarzak need to be replaced immediately.

Blackburn has been getting annihilated out there lately and Swarzak is definitely showing his rookie stripes. While I don't know either Manship or Duensing being long term answers to the rotational woes, I just think that it's gotten to the point (if not past it) that something needs to be done and I really don't see how either Duensing or Manship will be worse than either Swarzak or Blackburn right now. Both have been terrible as of late.

There are players going through waivers. Should the Twins take a chance at a guy like Aaron Harang? I think so, but only if we pull within reach of the division. If not, while I like him, his salary doesn't make much sense to the Twins.

***

What's the latest with Kyle Gibson? Should they even waste their time with him?

Kyle Gibson remains unsigned and the Twins have until 11:00 PM (CST) tonight to get a deal done otherwise he'll likely be returning to the University of Missouri for his senior season. He'd then reenter the draft next June. By all accounts, it sounds like both sides want a deal to get done, but it's also being reported that they remained about $1 million apart. Gibson is looking for something around $2.5 million, double of what the Twins could be doubling if they try to adhere to the suggested slot-suggestion of $1.287 million.

Parker Hageman wrote a good post last week regarding Gibson and thinks the Twins should stick to their guns with their proposal as Gibson still has some worrisome mechanical flaws that stem beyond his fractured forearm. While it's easy to agree with him, I personally would still like to see the Twins sign him. He's a high-upside pitcher and with the current state of the Twins' rotation, I think the Twins need a top prospect like Gibson.

I also think the Twins should have been prepared for this to happen when drafting him and if they weren't prepared then quite frankly I'm a little disappointed. As soon as his arm was healthy and he began throwing, the Twins should have known that he'd be asking for above what MLB recommends at the 22nd pick. The Twins probably tried signing him immediately but I'm sure Gibson wanted to wait. The Twins probably should have been prepared for that when drafting him.

But honestly, I don't entirely blame either side if a deal doesn't get done. If he's signed for $2.5 million, that'd be tied for the third largest signing bonus in Twins history. But the Twins have gone above the recommendations before and I'd like to see them get a deal done. But I do think that $2.5 is a bit high and if that's what he's demanding - and not backing down from - then I won't be upset if the Twins don't sign him.

I know many will whine about them failing to sign a Type-A free agent last off-season, like Orlando Cabrera or Orlando Hudson, and that they should reward fans with signing the player they drafted, but I don't think that's that big of a deal. The Twins took a chance but if the player's demands are outrageous, which I think Gibson's could be considered borderline, then you can't fault them for not meeting them.

We'll see what happens. While I'd like to see a deal get worked out, I can't say I'm entirely optimistic and I also would like to see the Twins and Gibson meet in the middle.

Also, make sure to check out Alex Halsted's interview with Gibson that he posted last week at his brand new blog, A Voice From Twins Territory.

***

Who should the Twins target this off-season? Both in free agency and/or via trades.

Peter, you must know how much I love to speculate. I will have to take longer to think about this but expect something up this week. But be advised, I'll be speculating on this from about the middle of September through December/January so you'll definitely get a lot of 'who should the Twins go after' talk in the next few months. And really, it's one of my favorite things to do. I know the possibility of any of it happening is minimal (if even that's an understatement), but it's still fun to be GM in your own mind.

***

When will you be doing your next Top 50 Twins Prospects list?

This winter. I'd like to do them multiple times a year but I think at that point they're just power rankings (which I guess the same case could be made for any prospect list, and) which are always fun to read but it takes too much time and I like that 'element of surprise' as to who my top prospect is going to be. But mostly just because I don't have enough time to do them.

***

Is Joe Mauer the MVP?

Up to this point, absolutely. But for more on this, I'd just advise you to read these three columns:

Mauer Power - By Joe Posnanski
Has Tex locked up MVP already? - By Rob Neyer
Dear AL East Fans: Don't Kid Yourselves, Joe Mauer is the AL MVP - By Dan Wade

All three of these pieces basically describe exactly how I feel about it.

***

Speaking of Mauer, will the Twins re-sign him this this off-season?

I'd like to think so. The Twins know his value and know that if they wait until next year to try and re-sign him right before he's about to test free agency, the 'big fish' (Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers, Cubs, etc.) will definitely contend with whatever offer the Twins try to give him. And really, I wouldn't blame him if he chose to go to a team that is more committed to winning than what the Twins might be. The Twins seem committed to winning, but I don't know if they're fully committed to winning a championship. I know some would think, "that's ridiculous to say" which may be true, but I've yet to be proven otherwise. The team knew heading into this season that they had a great foundation and were close to making the playoffs the previous season, but they made little improvements and the ball club ultimately took a step back. I'm not blaming the front office for the team (in short) sucking this year, but I don't think they really were committed to winning a championship with what they did last off-season.

It'll cost a lot, but the Twins need to re-sign Mauer. And that should be the most important thing on their agenda this off-season. I think that re-signing Mauer will immediately make the off-season a success. I just hope they get it done early and don't give the fans yet another excuse to why they don't go out and make a big acquisition. But I'm sure that's what will happen.

***

Finally, (the million dollar question) are the Twins done?

Eeesh.

That's a tough question for some. Is there a possibility? Absolutely. But will they? Now, before I answer that, I want to stress that I'm pretty optimistic by default and always try to see things from both sides of the fence. I've learned over the years that baseball can take many unprecedented twists and turns throughout the season and anything can happen. But like Aaron Gleeman said today on his blog, it's really hard to envision the Twins doing anything (regardless of past success and an easy schedule) with the way this team is playing right now. The pitching sucks, really bad right now and there's really not enough in-house options to right the ship at this point. The offense has been about the same as last year (averaging around 5 runs per game) but if the offense and pitching aren't in sync, it's hard to believe they'll be able to make up six games right now. So to answer your question, I believe that they are done.

I know the players still want the organization to do anything/everything possible to let them win this season, but if you've seen this team in the last month, do you really envision them as a playoff team let alone as a World Series contender? I don't see them as either and I woudn't mind seeing them play some of their September call-ups more than usual to prepare for next season (i.e. Danny Valencia).

I will note, one bright spot about finishing low in the standings is that if they're in the bottom 15, they won't have to give up their top pick in next year's draft to sign a Type-A free agent. Right now, the Twins would have the 12th pick in the draft . And if they are within the protected top 15 picks, they really have no reason to not sign anyone they want this off-season.

***

I want to thank Peter for sending me these questions and I'd also like to encourage readers to send in questions at any time. I might not dedicate an entire post to them, but sometimes they'll spark interest and could give me an idea on what to write about as the dog days of August and a frustrating team are certainly making it hard to write constructive posts every day.

August 14, 2009

Twins Rundown: August 14, 2009

As we all know, the Twins fell to the Royals this week 1-2 and are now 5 games back in the season. I'm not optimistic that the ball club is going to win this division as I still personally believe that the White Sox are a much better team. But, I'm not going to throw in the towel just yet. There's still a lot of baseball left and a sweep can bring us right back in it. And don't forget, we still have 13 games against the White Sox and Tigers including a four game series from Sept. 28-Oct. 1. It obviously doesn't look good, but I still haven't been able to find it within me to pull the plug on the season. I don't care what anyone thinks, I just can't do it yet.

As if you haven't heard, the Twins made a ton of moves on Wednesday. The most exciting to me is obviously the Jeff Manship promotion. Manship will be taking over for Glen Perkins in the bullpen and will likely remain in the long-relief role for the immediate future. He's one of the better pitching prospects in the organization and can hopefully be a reliable arm that can give the Twins multiple innings per appearance. With the way our bullpen has been this season, we really need it.

This move was just the beginning of an entire chain of moves throughout the Minor Leagues. Most notably, Anthony Slama finally got the promotion Twins fans have been calling for all season. He's taking Manship's spot on the Red Wings pitching staff. Slama lead the Eastern league in both appearances and saves prior to the promotion. But at 25-years-old, the reluctance to promote him both this season and last season has made Twins fans go crazy and I personally don't blame them for voicing their displeasure on this one. I usually don't question many of the organizations philosophies, and I understand that they want a player to go through the ups and downs at each stop, but it's almost as though they've completely neglecting the fact that he went to college. They moved him quickly at first and slammed on the breaks when he got in Ft. Myers where he posted nearly identical numbers that he posted in Beloit where he only spent about a 1/3 of the time.

Taking Slama's spot on the Rock Cats roster is Loek Van Mil. Yes, the 7'1'' Van Mil. He needs to be added to the 40-man roster this off-season to protect him from the Rule V Draft and the Twins probably wanted to see him get a few innings in Double-A to justify their decision. Van Mil definitely deserved this promotion. He's posted solid numbers throughout his Minor League career but struggles with his control quite a bit. He's still considered a 'work in progress' but he's definitely got potential. Hopefully he continues to put up good numbers while cutting back on the walks.

With an open roster spot on the Miracle roster, Bobby Lanigan got the promotion to Ft. Myers. Lanigan has been very inconsistent this season but has good control and gets a lot of ground ball outs. I think this is a good promotion, but a case could certainly have been made for Brad Tippett who has been the best pitcher for the Snappers all season, which isn't saying much but at the same time it still is.

And the Twins weren't done. Brad Stillings took Lanigan's roster spot in Beloit and both Kelvin Mota and Jhon Garcia were promoted from the Gulf Coast League to the Appalachian League.

Aaron Gleeman posted a video of Nick Nelson rapping to 'Swee Home Alabama' like Eminem did in '8 Mile'. One word, priceless. And for those wondering, yes, bloggers are that cool.

Seth Stohs posted his updated Top 50 Twins Prospects list. It's awesome looking at prospect lists and Seth's has a lot of interesting names. Most notably, a guy most Twins fans still haven't heard of is Adrian Salcedo who cracked his top 10.

Brian Pietrzak wrote a great book review for Munson: The Life and Death of a Yankee Captain by Marty Appel. The book sounds great and it's now on my list of books that I'll be looking to read this fall. But tops on that list is still Joe Posnanski's The Machine: A Hot Team, a Legendary Season, and a Heart-stoppping World Series: The Story of the 1975 Cincinnati Reds.

And make sure to head over to A Voice From Twins Territory to read a great interview with Kyle Gibson.

And for more on Gibson, make sure to read the Star-Tribune's article by Joe Christensen. Stohs also updates us on a few other unsigned players. He also informs us that former first round pick Jay Rainville has decided to retire from professional baseball. Sad news.

Finally, here's my Quote of the Day:

"Was that catching or missing? He's the third catcher. He says he can do it, and I believe him because he'd be faster running back and picking it up at the backstop than anybody else."

- - Twins manager Ron Gardenhire on Carlos Gomez catching for Jesse Crain and Jose Mijares in the bullpen.

August 12, 2009

Perkins hits the shelf, but who takes his place?

Update 9:00 AM: According to Seth Stohs, Jeff Manship is indeed being called up and will be in at the Metrodome in time for tonight's game. That's great news! For those interested, Jeff did a Q&A for this site a while back (has it already been two years?! wow).

The Twins announced after their embarrassing loss to the Royals on Tuesday night that Glen Perkins has been placed on the 15-day Disabled List due to something along the lines of a sore shoulder. Perkins had an MRI prior to the game on Tuesday and although nothing was seen in the results, Perkins said that something's not right and the Twins ultimately decided to take a deeper look at it.

With Perkins gone and the Twins using up four relievers to finish off Tuesday's game, including both Brian Duensing and Bobby Keppel, the Twins need to make a move to bring in a pitcher prior to Francisco Liriano's start tonight. Liriano has averaged just 5 2/3 innings per start this season and if either of his last two starts are any indication, they'll need to have a pitcher ready to throw at least 2 innings of relief to give some relief (pun intended) to the bullpen.

Last week, I wrote about how Juan Morillo should be recalled by the Twins. And although I still believe that, it's not to say that I'm not laboring for anyone else to not be called up. Because really, I believe four or five guys could be realistic options for a recall. And Morillo is certainly just one of them. But as Seth Stohs points out, Morillo just threw 2+ innings last night (33 pitches total) and would probably be of no use for the Twins tonight.

And while we can only dream of Anthony Slama being promoted, to me it comes down to two guys:
  • Rob Delaney threw 2 2/3 innings on Monday but should be ready to throw one or two if needed tonight. And have I mentioned he's been lights out? Since the All-Star Break, he's 1-2 with a 1.84 ERA and 13/3 K/BB ratio. On the season, he's 5-3 with a 3.16 ERA for the Red Wings after posting a 2.00 ERA in as many games (26) with the Rock Cats.
  • Jeff Manship is another person who could also be an option. La Velle E. Neal III and Stohs also believe Manship could be the guy and it's hard to disagree. He's scheduled to start for the Red Wings tonight and should be able to throw as many innings as needed. He's had problems with walks this season and in eight starts with the Red Wings he's thrown four quality starts.

I know some believe Armando Gabino should be recalled because he's already on the 40-man roster, but the Twins have yet to transfer Kevin Slowey onto the 60-day disabled list which would open a stop on the 40-man. Also, Gabino just started on Monday and threw 90 pitches through 6 2/3 innings. I just don't see him being the fit either. Yohan Pino's name hasn't really been mentioned, but he just threw 8 innings on Sunday...

Right now, I'm pulling for Manship to get the recall but my gut feeling is that Delaney is the choice. But we'll see.

August 11, 2009

That can't be good...


Warning, this is very 'out in left field' post. And not to mention scatter-brained.

For those that either read this site or know me, you already know that I rarely say anything nice about the White Sox. Honestly, it's nothing personal. I just don't like them. They're the Twins' biggest rivals and since they were the last A.L. Central team to hoist the Commissioner's Trophy, I have a reason to dislike them, don't I? But right now, I'm finding it hard to find anything bad to say about the White Sox, which is something that has never happened to me. The franchise is in a great position to be very good for a long time, which is something that should frighten Twins fans.

Most Twins fans are about to enjoy the best year of Twins baseball yet. The ball club has arguably the best player in the world, another player that is a former MVP, one of the best lead-off hitters in the game, a rarely-talked about DH that is putting up All-Star numbers and a brand new stadium that will host its first game next spring. Obviously, it's an exciting time to be a Twins fan.

But the White Sox are doing their best to piss on the Twins' parade by loading up on players that will certainly make them the favorites to win the A.L. Central not only this season but in 2010 also. And no, it is not only because they got Alex Rios yesterday for... nothing.

With an already talented roster, the White Sox didn't have to surrender any players to acquire a good outfielder in Rios. Rios was claimed by the White Sox off of waivers by the Blue Jays who were looking to dump salary. The problem is, although he's making a lot of money, the Blue Jays basically gave away a 28-year-old with great potential and who is still not making a disgusting amount. He's set to make around $60 million between now and 2014. But to me, the contract shouldn't pose a problem.

Rios will be 33-years-old in his last year of his contract. In other words, he'll likely have already hit his peak and will be on the slight decline. But if Rios plays to his potential with the White Sox, he'll make that $12 million look like nothing.

Rios is moving into U.S. Cellular which has about the same dimensions as his former home in the Rogers Centre. The two ballparks are very similar, in fact, the Rogers Centre averages 2.37 home runs per game while U.S. Cellular averages 2.35.

Rios is a developed version of what the Twins' Carlos Gomez could be. He's a toolsy outfielder who plays good defense. His bat is light-years ahead of Gomez's, but many believe Gomez should be able to put up similar offensive numbers to Rios as well, perhaps with a little less 'pop' and a little more base running. But nonetheless, the White Sox acquired a very talented outfielder, for again, nothing.

Even with the addition of Jake Peavy and his large contract and Rios now on board, the White Sox are still in a very good place financially. "How?" you may ask. Well, this off-season the White Sox could have almost $50 million coming off the payroll.
  • Jim Thome - $13 Million
  • Jermaine Dye - (Mutual Option - $12 Million/$1 Million buyout)
  • Jose Contreras - $10 Million
  • Octavio Dotel - $6 Million
  • Ramon Castro - $2.5 Million
  • Mark Kotsay - $1.5 Million
  • Matt Thornton - (Club Option - $2.25 Million/$250,000 buyout)
  • Bartolo Colon - $1 Million
That's a lot of money that could come off of their hands this off-season. And remember, they play in the third largest market in baseball. And the other team that is in their same market is spending nearly $40 million more this season. Obviously that doesn't mean that the White Sox could/should spend that much more, but they certainly could up their payroll if needed.

Both Thome and Dye are integral parts to their offense and they'd certainly miss both. But that leaves the ball club open to going out and acquiring a few serious free agents. Although the list of 'top' free agents is limited, they'll be aggressive and will likely land at least one high-impact free agent.

My early prediction: Matt Holliday

Why? Because even though Carlos Quentin is 'locked' in left field, he's terrible there defensively (career -8.7 UZR/150 in LF) and with his reoccurring foot problems, he'll benefit offensively from a move to DH where he'd fill Thome's spot just fine. Holliday is an upgrade defensively (career 6.6 UZR/150 in LF).

Many believe the Cardinals will lock up Holliday long-term, but he's a Scott Boras client and I'll be surprised if he doesn't test the free agency market. And if he does hit the market, I expect the White Sox to be one of his likely suitors.

And if that fails, the White Sox have always been very aggressive in acquiring players via trade and reports are running rampant that Carl Crawford could be dealt this off-season. A player the White Sox have been connected to in the past.

The White Sox don't have a lot of depth in their farm system. But even though they've traded away A LOT of their top prospects in the past couple years, they still have a few valuable chips in their system. Most notably: Tyler Flowers, Jordan Danks, Dayan Viciedo and Dan Hudson. The White Sox probably wouldn't trade Flowers with A.J. Pierzynski coming off the books in 2011. Viciedo is probably too expensive for the Rays liking. With Rios being the only outfielder (at least in my mind) who is a lock to stay in the outfield, they might also want to hold onto Danks. But Hudson will surely entice the Rays and would be a good centerpiece for a Crawford trade. Obviously, Jared Mitchell should also be mentioned, but he's not allowed to be traded until next summer.

Either Crawford or Holliday are certainly realistic possibilities for the White Sox for the outfield.

And then there's the rotation. With Peavy, Mark Buehrle, John Danks and Gavin Floyd, the White Sox now have one of the best 1-4 in the American League. And with Jose Contreras leaving after the season, that leaves the White Sox with the possibility to add an impact pitcher like Rich Harden or John Lackey.

Now, just about everything from the middle of this post-on is purely speculative and basically moot to my overall meaning of this post. So what is my meaning? In case you haven't figured it out yet...

The White Sox have a great shot of winning this season and with a lot of financial flexibility, they have a lot that they can do not only this off-season, but in 2011 when guys like Pierzynski and Paul Konerko come off the books as well. They've dealt many of their top prospects but they still have a couple good players in their system that should help within the next couple years.

That should worry the Twins who are currently three games under .500 and don't look to have what it takes to win this season, and maybe not next either. Obviously we can all say, "the payroll should go up when we move into Target Field." And while that should definitely be the case, I don't think anyone should get their hopes up of it taking a drastic turn north from the get-go. Obviously it'll spike if they do re-sign Mauer, but I don't see them going on a spending spree in free agency and I also don't see them acquiring an impact player via trade. The Twins do play in a larger market than the St. Louis Cardinals who are spending roughly $33 million more than the Twins. That's not to say the Twins need to spend that much, but it's more so of a reference of where I someday see the Twins payroll peaking.

I can't stand the White Sox, but it's hard not to be impressed with the way Kenny Williams and Jerry Reinsdorf have built that franchise. As a Twins fan, I'm envious to not have a GM like Williams who is as aggressive as it gets, yet he has a great grasp on the finances. And Reinsdord is a reason enough that Twins fans should be envious of the White Sox.

Now Twins fans just need to hope that the White Sox fail to live up to the billing like the Tigers did in 2008.

August 9, 2009

Sunday's Minor League Short Hops

Snappers outfielder Aaron Hicks snapped a 10-game hitting streak in game one of yesterday's double-header against Cedar Rapids. During that period, Hicks hit .349 with three doubles, a triple, home runs and drove in six RBI. He also walked five times and struck out six. And speaking of, while Hicks' hit streak was snapped, he's now reached base safely (hit or walk) in 13 straight games. Hicks' tri-slash line of .247/.355/.370 doesn't look great considering the type of hype Hicks has had since he was drafted. But something that is worth noting is his 26 walks to 31 strikeouts. That kind of plate discipline is great from any 19-year-old and it could give the Twins a reason to promote him after the season, despite only having three months in the Midwest League, but seeing as how the Twins have been reluctant to promote other players over the years, Hicks will probably have to wait until mid-season in 2009 to see the Florida State League.

Andrey Lobanov who premiered on my Top 50 Prospect list at no. 50 this winter has put up some great numbers in the Gulf Coast League this season. In 12 games (18 innings), the lanky southpaw has a .67 WHIP and a good ground ball out percentage of 68. But the most impressive stat that the 19-year-old Russian has posted is a 30/0 K/BB ratio. He only throws in the mid-80's but his fastball is very deceptive and has gained quite a bit of movement on it. He'll likely end up back in Rookie Ball in 2010 with the Elizabethton Twins.

Another player on the GCL Twins that is opening some eyes is Hyeong-rok Choi. Choi is a middle infielder from South Korea who has been impressive in his second go-around in the GCL. Through 18 games, he's hitting .305/.388/.475 with two doubles, a triple and two home runs. Hyun-wook Choi, (the other) Choi's classmate from Gunsan Commercial High School in South Korea is also playing for the GCL Twins. The outfielder is having less success in his second season with the GCL Twins but is considered a fleet-footed outfielder with a good arm/glove.

GCL Twins ace B.J. Hermsen hasn't allowed an earned run in his last 19 innings pitched. He last gave up an earned run on July 15th. He did give up three unearned runs in his last start, but they weren't charged to Hermsen because Jairo Perez botched a ground ball at third base which opened the flood gates for the GCL Reds in the fourth inning. Hermsen has been spectacular in his first season of pro ball and despite not having any experience in the Appalachian League, he's making a case for himself to move him up to Single-A Beloit in 2010. The Twins surely aren't regretting the $650,000 signing bonus it took to lure Hermsen out of a scholarship to Oregon State.

Yesterday, Wilson Ramos played in his second game with the GCL Twins since partially tearing his hamstring in early June. It was the last of several injuries the very soon-to-be (how soon? tomorrow soon) 22-year-old has had this season. He's only played in a total of 38 games this season due to the injuries but has been impressive in his limited time. He hit .308/.327/.444 with 12 extra-base hits in 36 games with the New Britain Rock Cats. He struck out 15 times opposed to only three walks, but both would be cutbacks from last year in the Florida State League. Ramos is 3 for 9 on his rehab assignment with two home runs and a double. The Twins are hoping he'll be able to return to the Rock Cats lineup sometime in the next week. Ramos is one of the Twins' top prospects but will surely be back in New Britain next season.

Another player rehabbing is Alejandro Machado. Machado has been injured throughout his career with the Twins after they selected him in the 2006 Rule V Draft. He missed all of the 2007 season and part of 2008 with a torn labrum and has had knee problems throughout this season. He has played a total of 25 games this season, only 18 of which have been with the Rochester Red Wings. The fragile 27-year-old has the ability to hit, which was proven last year when he hit .338/.376/.472 with 20 extra-base hits in 54 games with the Red Wings, but injuries continue to derail his career. He is three for 13 with a double and five walks in four rehab games with the Ft. Myers Miracle.

Mark Grudzielanek continues his way back to the Major Leagues but is now two for his last 12 lowering his average to .257 through seven games with the New Britain Rock Cats. In that span, he's struck out five times opposed to walking just once and hasn't yet recorded an extra-base hit. Grudzielanek is a career .290 hitter with a solid OPS+ of 90. He will definitely start hitting eventually, but if John Bonnes is right, he'll need to start making progress sooner rather than later as he's on a 25-day contract. Grudzielanek is an upgrade offensively over both Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto and the Twins seem willing to lose a little defensively to gain a lot offensively. But at this point, he's not showing to be an upgrade offensively either. But he hasn't played in nearly a year, so he has some rust to knock off.

Miracle starter, David Bromberg won his fourth consecutive start on Friday, limiting the Charlotte Stone Crabs to just three hits in the second complete game shutout of his career. Bromberg didn't face more than four batters in a single inning and the only Stone Crab to reach second base was Shawn O'Malley who stole second base after a lead-off walk in the first inning. Bromberg fanned nine to bring his season total to 113. Through 22 games (21 starts), the 21-year-old right-hander is 11-1 on the year with a 2.44 ERA.

Here's a great article on Miracle pitching coach Steve Mintz. He's had a lot of success with the Miracle pitching staff this season and has been a great replacement for Eric Rasmussen.

Finally here's another great article, this one is about Jake Mauer and his experience in managing a culturally diverse GCL Twins team..