May 7, 2009

Top 50 MiLB Prospects 2009 | #5 | Rick Porcello | Tigers

Position | Pitcher

Bats/Throws | Right/Right

Born
| December 27, 1988 (Morristown, New Jersey)

School
| Setan Hall Prep High School

Height
| 6'5''

Weight
| 200 lbs.

2008 Ranking | 15



Breakdown
The Detroit Tigers drafted Rick Porcello in the first round of the 2007 draft. Despite having top ten talent, teams passed on him because of two driving factors: (A) He signed a letter of intent to play for the University of North Carolina; and (B) he was represented by Scott Boras. Both of those have one underlying factor, it would cost any team that drafted him a lot of money to get him. The Tigers took the risk, and after signing too late to play in 2007, he skipped both Rookie Ball and Low-A Ball and began his professional career in the Florida State League in 2008. After faring well there, the Tigers brought him into Spring Training and as a surprise to many, he made the team despite having no experience in Double-A or Triple-A. He certainly has the arm and repertoire to support a major league career (even at this age), but it was still a humdinger. He throws both of his fastballs in the mid-90's and shows acceptional control for a pitcher his age. His potential has no limits and should be at the very top of the Tigers rotation for years to come.

2008 Statistics
Level    W    L    ERA     IP     K    BB    WHIP    FIP
A+       8    6   2.66  125.0    72    33    1.19   3.83

2009 Outlook
Despite only having experience in the Florida State League, the Tigers decided to bring Porcello north to Detroit where he joined the Tigers rotation.

Pitching Repertoire
  • Fastball (Two & Four Seam)
  • Curveball
  • Change-up

Video


Estimated Time of Arrival
2009

Game Balls

The last Game Ball was handed out on Saturday which means I have missed the last four... Time to update what I've missed...



Thursday Twins Linkage: May 7, 2009

The Twins played a rain-shortened game last night, losing 4-1 in only 5 2/3 innings before the game was officially called. Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire voiced his opinion after the game, which was that the game should have never gotten in. Four different downpours totaling 3+ hours of delays before the game was pretty substantial and warrants the manager's displeasure. Kevin Slowey was hit hard, giving up three runs including a two-run home run to Nick Markakis. Craig Breslow gave up a slow shot to Luke Scott in the fourth inning.

A day after suggesting that Alexi Casilla should be sent to the minor leagues, the Twins made it official after arriving at Camden Yards in Baltimore. Casilla will head to Rochester infielder Matt Tolbert takes his place on the Twins roster. Tolbert was hitting .260/.324/.375 through 23 games (96 AB's) with the Red Wings.

Justin Murphy posted his "Upstate Update" which highlights what is going on with the Twins Triple-A affiliate the Rochester Red Wings. Hopefully (much like the Twins) their pitching and offense can improve enough to get over the .500 mark.

And speaking of the Rochester Red Wings, I recommend everyone to check out a new blog called 'R Red Wings.

Here are the scores throughout the Twins Minor League system from Wednesday:

  • Rochester Red Wings beat the Louisville Bats, 5-2.
  • New Britain Rock Cats beat the New Hampshire Fisher Cats, 2-0 in Game 1. And then won 5-3 in Game 2.
  • Ft. Myers Miracle lost to the Sarasota Reds, 6-5.
  • Beloit Snappers lost to the West Michigan Whitecaps, 3-0.

May 6, 2009

Twins demote Casilla, call up Tolbert

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune mentioned last night that the Twins could be making a roster move prior to today's game in Baltimore, and Kelsie Smith of the St. Paul Pioneeer Press is reporting that the Twins have in fact demoted Alexi Casilla to Triple-A Rochester while calling-up Matt Tolbert.

We'll see how Casilla responds to the demotion. Hopefully it's the kick in the rear he needs.

Casilla on the outs?

First, I will post the Game Balls that I have missed at some point today. Also, I will be continuing with the Top 50 MiLB Prospect list to finish it off, my hope is to have them all posted by Friday. That likely means two today, two tomorrow and one on Friday.

La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Start-Tribune made note on his blog last night that he expects there to be a roster move at some point today. The move would likely involve adding an infielder to take the place of Alexi Casilla who as I noted yesterday, has struggled all season. But it could also just be Neal suggesting that Casilla will be moved to the bench in place of Brendan Harris or perhaps a minor league call-up.

The tone of the report suggests that Casilla would be in fact sent down. Yesterday he made multiple defensive misplays, one resulting in an error, while continuing to show absolutely no composure at the plate. Actually, his 1-4 effort now give him 7 hits in his last 58 at-bats (.120 average). In that time, he has struck out 15 times. He still only has two extra-base hits on the season as well.

Yesterday looks like it was the last straw for Ron Gardenhire.

Neal suggests that Matt Tolbert, who recently appeared on my "Not-So-Hot-List", may be considered for a call-up. Tolbert has hit .356 with four extra-base hits and seven RBI in his last ten games. But more importantly, he has played mistake-free defense which is really what Casilla has been scolded for the most. If Casilla was playing flawless defense (or at least better defense), he probably wouldn't be in this situation.

The Twins now have 12 relievers again, and although many have been ineffective this season, R.A. Dickey and Craig Breslow, probably the two most likely to be considered "on the bubble" combined for five strikeouts yesterday.

Whether or not this report is just a suggestion that Casilla will be benched in favor of Brendan Harris or that Casilla could be sent to the minor leagues, it is encouraging to see Gardenhire be vocal and show willingness to improve the team in some fashion.

I'm trying not to beat this issue to death, but it is something that should be noted.

May 5, 2009

What Should Be Done With Second?

Coming into the season, Alexi Casilla was one position player with a huge question mark over his head. Despite hitting a career-best .281, his performance from first-half to second-half were pretty staggering. After hitting .315/.357/.440 with 17 extra base hits. But in the second half, he hit a horrendous .243/.305/.303 with seven extra base hits in just 15 less at-bats. Obviously these dramatic splits raised the question whether or not Casilla’s first-half numbers were a fluke.

So far this season, his critics look to be right while the 25-year-old Casilla is hitting a ghastly .163/.230/.200 despite receiving the majority of the playing time at second base. His sub-par offense has lead to him having an early -8.6 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player), which was at 8.4 at the end of the 2008 season. Even his defense has been suspect thus far this season, despite having only two official errors on the season. He has had many mental lapses this season despite them not all showing up in the stat books. His Revised Zone Rating (RZR) is .828 (as of 5/3/09) which ranks 14th out of 27 eligible players throughout MLB.

All these really goes to show you is that despite putting up atrociously bad offensive numbers, his defense is truly not strong enough to continue letting him receive as many at-bats as he’s had. If the Twins had no options to replace him with, I could see them justifying a reason to continue giving him at-bats. But the team does have an option, although the two seem to be polar opposites in their respective skill sets.

Brendan Harris has found himself in manager Ron Gardenhire’s doghouse, a place Casilla has become familiar with in the past. Harris has received 31 less at-bats as Casilla has this season, despite scoring two more runs and driving in as many runners as the switch-hitting Casilla. Harris has also recorded five multi-hit games this season, something Casilla has only done twice.

Harris’ bat at least makes up for his less-desirable defense, which by all accounts is not great. Harris has played enough second base to have learned how to turn a smooth double-play, but for some reason he still has a shortstop’s mentality and needs to work on his footwork. Still, Harris’ poor defense is made up for by his bat and ability to play fundamental baseball. Another thing Casilla has shown an inability to do.

Casilla’s mental lapses haven’t just been on the defensive side of the ball, he’s hitting a horrific .083/.120/.083 from the right side of the plate (2 hits in 24 at-bats), and has also had Gardenhire speak to him about his lack of motivation and hustle on both the offensive and defensive side of the ball.

Whatever is wrong with Casilla is a mystery that maybe only he himself knows, but how much longer the Twins give him to figure things out shouldn’t require such a complex answer. A trip to the Minor Leagues seems unlikely, but it could be the wakeup call he needs. He benefited from it last year and maybe that is what will fire him up again. He could land a spot on the bench, but he needs to play. However he cannot continue hurting the Twins with his lack of production and lack of concentration.

While we’re on this topic, here are a couple interesting tidbits that relate on some level. In an article posted before the season, in which the Twins Writers over at Baseball Digest made some Bold Predictions, Nick Nelson added “Alexi Casilla will lose his starting job at second base a few months into the year.” In another article titled Keys to Success, yours truly wrote “…to not be afraid to pull the plug on a player sooner rather than later.”

This post can also be read at BaseballDigest.com

May 3, 2009

Minor League Report: April (pt. deux)

As I mentioned yesterday, I am going to be doing monthly Minor League reports throughout the season. However due to some things that came up, I had to change the format of the reports a bit. Instead of focusing on each team, I decided to just choose a few Minor League players who impressed me through the first month of the season. Today, I will choose a few players who disappointed me through the first month.

The Not-So-Hot List
(In no particular order)


After nearly making the roster out of Spring Training, Matt Tolbert expected his time in Rochester to be short-lived. He was expected to be the first guy the Twins would call-upon in case of an injury to any of their current infielders, but if he continues to play like he did in April, that probably won't be the case. Tolbert hit .194/.289/.284 through 69 April at-bats. On the bright side, he played good defense and showed good plate discipline, but if he wants to seperate himself from the Nick Punto-clone comparisons, he'll have to hit better than he did in April.





* Tolbert is no longer considered a prospect, therefore he did not appear anywhere on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Steven Tolleson - 25 - Shortstop/Second Base : New Britain Rock Cats

After a great 2008 season in the Eastern League, a crowded infield in Triple-A Rochester forced Steven Tolleson to start the 2009 season back in New Britain. Although his poor April could be attributed to a lack of motivation, he'll need to step it up if he wants to prove the Twins wrong for making this decision. Tolleson hit .169/.234/.203 in 59 April at-bats. He also caused three errors on defense. Keep in mind, he committed just 12 errors through 93 games last season. At this pace, he's on track to commit 19 errors through 93 games already. He has been praised for playing fundamental baseball throughout his career, but he'll have to get back to that to move forward.



* Tolleson ranked 21st on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.



Despite an injury-plagued 2008 campaign, Deibinson Romero moved up to the Florida State League where he (theoretically) should be if he wanted to keep up with the one level up per year "system." But after a strong start, Romero took a steep drop-off in the month of April and finished the month with a .655 OPS but more importantly the strong-gloved third baseman committed seven errors. Romero was once listed as the "Best Defensive Infielder" in the Twins system (according to Baseball America), but he lost that title this year and doesn't look to be making a case to win it back.




* Romero ranked 35th on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Shooter Hunt - 22 - Right-Handed Pitcher : Beloit Snappers

When Shooter Hunt was drafted in the Supplemental 1st Round of the 2008 draft, his biggest flaw was his lack of control. Even The Baseball Cube showed his lack in control with a "Scouting Report" rating of 29. For reference, his K-Rating and Efficiency were both ranked in the mid-to-high 90's. Well Hunt struggled in April, with a 0-1 record to go along with a 10.80 ERA. He walked 23 batters opposed to striking out only 10. He has a few mechanical issues he needs to work on, but many people are suggesting that he should be put into the bullpen to work on his control. It's not too far-fetched to think that he could end up in Extened Spring Training or back in Elizabethton if that's what the team thinks will help him figure things out.

* Hunt ranked 8th on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.



Angel Morales flew onto the radar during the 2008 season where he hit 15 home runs with an OPS of 1.036 through 54 games with the Elizabethon Twins. A five-tool potential outfielder, everyone was getting anxious to see how Morales would fare in a full-season league like the Midwest League. So far, it hasn't gone as planned for the 19-year-old Puerto Rican native. Through 58 April at-bats, Morales hit .172/.200/.328 with a 9/1 K/BB ratio (18/2). His OPS of .528 is .508 points lower than his OPS last year (1.036). He has also committed two errors, half as many of his 2008 total.




* Morales ranked 6th on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Five others worth mentioning (in no particular order): Jeff Manship (RHP, New Britain), Daniel Osterbrock (LHP, Beloit), Reid Santos (LHP, Rochester), Michael Allen (RHP, Beloit), Ben Julianel (LHP, Rochester)

Twins 'Mariners' Themselves

If you recall, the second game of the season featured a pretty wild 9th inning from the Mariners:
Bottom 9th: Minnesota
- B. Morrow relieved D. Aardsma
- J. Crede struck out swinging
- D. Young flied out to deep center
- C. Gomez walked
- J. Kubel hit for J. Morales
- C. Gomez to second on fielder's indifference
- J. Kubel walked
- B. Buscher hit for N. Punto
- B. Harris ran for J. Kubel
- B. Buscher walked, C. Gomez to third, B. Harris to second
- M. Batista relieved B. Morrow
- D. Span singled to third, C. Gomez scored, B. Harris to third, B. Buscher to second
- A. Casilla singled to center, B. Harris and B. Buscher scored, D. Span to second
Here is what the Twins did on Saturday night:
Top 11th: Kansas City
- C. Breslow relieved M. Guerrier
- C. Crisp walked
- W. Bloomquist walked, C. Crisp to second
- B. Butler grounded into fielder's choice, C. Crisp to third, W. Bloomquist out at second
- M. Teahen hit for M. Maier
- M. Teahen walked, B. Butler to second
- R.A. Dickey relieved C. Breslow
- J. Buck walked, C. Crisp scored, B. Butler to third, M. Teahen to second
- A. Callaspo grounded into fielder's choice, B. Butler scored, M. Teahen to third, J. Buck out at second
- D. DeJesus singled to left, M. Teahen scored, A. Callaspo to second
- M. Olivo hit by pitch, A. Callaspo to third, D. DeJesus to second
- T. Pena Jr. grounded out to second
In the Mariners game, Brandon Morrow and Miguel Batista combined to throw 17 of 31 pitches for strikes (55%). Last night, Craig Breslow and R.A. Dickey combined to throw 18 of 40 pitches for strikes (45%).

Obviously 10% is a pretty substantial difference, but both cases fielded the same results. The hitters feasted on the relievers inability to find the strike zone. Unfortunately this time it cost the Twins a victory.

The Twins used all six relievers out of their depleted bullpen. Jose Mijares and Joe Nathan continued to pitch well while Matt Guerrier extended his strong outings to 7 2/3 innings without allowing a run, which by all means isn't great but it is a big thing for him. Luis Ayala continues to prove that he has been a waste of money thus far while Breslow and Dickey need to find some consistency or find the door.

I'm done 'beating the dead horse' on the issue, the Twins know they need to improve their bullpen and I just hope that the current state of Minnesota's bullpen could trigger a promotion for one (or both) of Anthony Slama or Rob Delaney to Triple-A. The Twins need to fix their bullpen and since they don't look interested in going out and finding a capable arm, unless you call scavenging on the waiver wire "going out", the team needs to start moving some arms around from within.

FREE SLAMA & DELANEY!

Game Ball #24


May 2, 2009 vs. Kansas City Royals
Delmon Young - Left Field
Line: 3-4, 2 runs, 2 RBI, SB

* Michael Cuddyer and Joe Mauer were also considerations. I just thought under the circumstances (Young replacing Kubel after he was scratched), it was a good all-around performance. Although I am aware that he benefited from a terrible throw from Coco Crisp.

May 2, 2009

Minor League Report: April

The Minor Leagues have always been one of my favorite aspects of baseball. The game is all about development. There are so many things that a player has to do right in order to be successful, which is why seeing players develop through a team's system is something I love to pay attention to.

Throughout the season, I will be taking a look at the minor leagues at least once per month. Obviously many know I am really interested in the Minor Leagues with some of the prospect lists and posts that I have compiled since the start of the site, but for some reason (with really no answer) I've gone back from posting regular Minor League reports. Anyways, I had computer problems on Thursday/Friday this week which prevented me from seeing writing a lot of what I had intended to write about, so instead I will be taking a look at a few minor leaguer's. But in the coming months, I will try to be a little more team-specific and provide better analysis.

Although I am aware that most of these players have played a game in May, I am only using stats as of April 30, 2009.
The Hot List
(In no particular order)

Anthony Swarzak - 23 - Right-Handed Pitcher : Rochester Red Wings

Anthony Swarzak has been one of the biggest head-scratchers since the Twins drafted him in the second round of the 2004 draft. In 2007, he missed 50 games due to failing a drug test. Upon return, he finished the season off strongly in Double-A New Britain. Then in 2008, Swarzak headed back to New Britain where he struggled through 20 starts with a 5.67 ERA before undeservingly being promoted to Triple-A Rochester. But to the surprise of many, Swarzak dominated Triple-A hitters upon his arrival which has carried into this season. Through 10 Triple-A starts, Swarzak is now 5-3 with a 1.74 ERA. Three of those starts have come this season, unfortunately so has all three of those loses. Through 17 innings pitched the offense has only mustered up two runs of support which is evident by the loses when his ERA on the season is at 1.59.

Swarzak ranked 9th on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Anthony Slama - 25 - Right-Handed Pitcher : New Britain Rock Cats

The Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year is following up a phenomenal 2008 campaign with yet another stellar season. Despite having no Double-A experience, Slama has taken on the primary closer role in New Britatin this season. He has given up one run through 10 2/3 innings while striking out 19 batters opposed to six walks. The 5.1 BB/9 ratio is quite high, but his 16.0 K/9 ratio is too. Hopefully he keeps up the fantastic k-rate while gaining better control. He shouldn't require a lot of time in Double-A before heading to Triple-A, but that's what we thought last year before he ended up spending the entire season in the Florida State League at 24-years-old.



* Slama ranked 17th on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Rene Leveret - 23 - First Base : Ft. Myers Miracle

Two years ago, Rene Leveret emerged as a hot-hitting prospect with the Elizabethton Twins. But bad work ethic to go along with an immature attitude put Leveret in the back seat last season, forcing the Saint Maartin native to turn things around. So far, it looks as if he has as he's been great thus far for the Miracle. He has a .313 average and a .913 OPS through 57 at-bats this season while playing an acceptional first base. Leveret is not project to be much more than a back-up in the Major Leagues, but to some, performance outweighs physical attributes which could make Leveret a player worth keeping tabs on. He has a .303/.390/.441 line through 519 career at-bats. He has a good approach to go with a good bat which could move him quickly through the system. If he can keep both his weight andattitude in check, he should be fine.

* Leveret did not rank on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Carlos Gutierrez - 22 - Right-Handed Pitcher : Ft. Myers Miracle

The Twins drafted Carlos Gutierrez despite the fact that he hasn't started a game since 2006. Tommy John Surgery whipped out his 2007 season and was ousted to the bullpen upon his arrival in 2008. The Twins received plenty of grief for drafting him with the 27th overall pick, but so far they may be right yet again. Gutierrez's transitioning from reliever to starter was expected to be a tough process with many ups and downs, but after four starts (five total games) this season, he has only allowed two runs through 23 innings while compiling a 0.54 WHIP and 13/5 K/BB ratio. He has a great fastball which shouldn't surpise why he's dominating hitters, but so far it has been the development of his curveball which has caught many off-guard.


* Gutierrez ranked 18th on my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Ramon Santana - 23 - Second Base : Beloit Snappers

Ramon Santana has seeminlgy come out of nowhere this season and has emerged as a top prospect candidate, much like Luke Hughes did a year ago. Santana has been in Single-A Beloit since the end of the 2007 season, but has yet to have an OPS above .720 while playing mediocre defense. Thus far this season, although his defense has still been shaky, Santana's bat has opened the eyes of many with a .393/.493/.643 hitting line with 8 extra base hits including 3 home runs through 56 at-bats in 16 games. The most impressive part of Santana's success is the power he generates in his 5'9'' 152 lbs. frame. Signed as a non-drafted free agent out of Venezuela, Santana could be a player worth watching over the next month or two. Unfortunately a sprain ankle has haulted his hot start. Hopefully he picks up where he left off upon his return.

*Santana was not ranked in my 2009 Top 50 Twins Prospect list.


Five others worth mentioning (In no particular order): Brian Dinkelman (2B, New Britain), Matt Moses (OF, New Britain), Sean Henn (LHP, Rochester), Rob Delaney (RHP, New Britain), Steven Hirschfeld (RHP, Ft. Myers).


That's it for tonight. Hopefully my computer will hold up enough for me to post the Cold list tomorrow.

Mauer returns with a bang!

Click Here for a nice recap by AdamOnFirst over at Twinkie Town.

Under the circumstances, I had to go with Joe Mauer for the Game Ball tonight. Although Justin Morneau also had a great game.

Game Ball #23

May 1, 2009 vs. Kansas City Royals
Joe Mauer - Catcher
Line: 2-3, 3 runs, home run, walk, double