Last week, I gave my picks for both the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young awards, and today I'll finish it out by awarding my (obvious) MVP votes.
As I said, these picks are pretty obvious and therefore don't need a lot of explaining...
National League
If you're wondering who the best player in baseball is, it's without a doubt Albert Pujols. For those of you not taking advantage of watching as much of him as possible, you're truly missing out. Baring injury, Pujols may go down as one of the two or three best hitters to ever play this game, which is saying quite a bit considering he's never been connected to performance-enhancing drugs in an era littered with controversy.
This season, Pujols had one month in which he didn't have an OPS of 1.000. He didn't hit for nearly as much power in the second half of the season, but he finished the year with 47 home runs, which still lead the majors. Some were worried about Pujols' surgically-repaired elbow giving him fits heading into the season, but that obviously proved to not be the case.
Pujols has already won the MVP award twice in his career and unless something unthinkable happens, this should be his third MVP award in the last eight years.
Runner-Up: Prince Fielder - 1B - Milwaukee Brewers
Who'll Likely Win: Albert Pujols - 1B - St. Louis Cardinals
Pre-Season Pick: Manny Ramirez - LF - Los Angeles Dodgers
American League
Again, no surprise here. I'd like to say I predicted this, but I honestly can't say I did. Joe Mauer put up unreal numbers this season. Many doubted his ability to hit for power and actually heald a grudge against him for not being able to, and how did he respond? He went to the Home Run Derby for the first time in his career. And although he didn't win, he did pretty good for a guy with a career-high 13 home runs heading into the season. And just to show the type of season Mauer had, he nearly matched his career-high in home runs (13) in his first month of the season by hitting 11. He more-than doubled his career high in home runs with 28 on the season, which also helped him drive in a career high 96 RBI, despite missing the entire month of April.
What Mauer did offensively is oustanding, and when you factor in that he won his third batting title in four season, it makes it all the more impressive. Mauer flirted with .400 for much of the first half, but ultimately had to settle for a career-best .368 average.
Maybe I jumped the gun by saying that Pujols is the best player in baseball, because I don't know how much better you can get than Mauer. While Pujols may go down as one of the best hitters in the history of the game, Mauer may go down as the best catcher ever. And what's even more impressive is that Mauer has accomplished this much before even turning 27-years-old. The best of Mauer may be coming, which should scare opposing pitchers.
Runner-Up: Mark Teixeira - 1B - New York Yankees
Who'll Likely Win: Joe Mauer - C - Minnesota Twins
Pre-Season Pick: Josh Hamilton - OF - Texas Rangers
October 12, 2009
October 9, 2009
Award Predictions: Cy Young
Yesterday, I posted my choice for the Rookie of the Year for both the American and National Leagues, so today I'll keep the ball rolling with the Cy Young award.
National League
I honestly can't remember a time in which a league has three pitchers are so close to one another in the Cy Young voting. While there is one guy that likely won't win it, he does need to be mentioned. Adam Wainwright had an outstanding season in which he lead the National League with 19 wins and 233 innings pitched. He also finished in the top five in ERA, and while most years those numbers would certainly be enough, he'll likely finish third this season in Cy Young voting.
To me, it's really a coin flip between Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, and a case could certainly be made for both. And I'm going to take the easy way out and say that these two are both equally deserving of this award and should share it.
I know players sharing an award is pretty lame and probably won't gain much support, but I couldn't choose one over the other. On one hand, Lincecum is the most dominant pitcher in baseball and was in the top five in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched and WHIP. After winning the award in 2008 with outstanding numbers, he improved in most of his statistical categories this season. He lowered his walks, ERA, WHIP and BAA.
As for Carpenter, what he did this season may be more impressive as he had only appeared in five games - prior to this season - since 2006. After winning the Cy Young award in 2005, he had a successful 2006 season but fell short of defending his title. After injuring his elbow on Opening Day in 2007, he took a few months off to rehab before ultimately undergoing Tommy John Surgery in the middle of the 2007 season. He returned late in 2008 and put up great numbers in limited action, but nobody expected his first season back from surgery to be this successful.
This season, Carpenter lead the National League in ERA and finished in the top five in Wins and WHIP. He only gave up more than four runs two times this season. If he could take back those two starts, he would have been 17-2 with a 1.73 ERA. That's not a reasoning to vote for him, but it does go to show just how good he was. One thing that will hurt Carpenter is having his teammate stealing away votes from him.
I don't know who'll win this one. I think that most voters will go with Carpenter because of leading the league in ERA, having more wins than Lincecum and also being on a winning team. But I think it's a really close race that will be one to pay attention to.
Runner-Up: Adam Wainwright - P - St. Louis Cardinals
Who'll Likely Win: Chris Carpenter - P - St. Louis Cardinals.
Pre-Season Pick: Rich Harden - P - Chicago Cubs
American League
Unlike the National League, this race isn't even really close. And although many people will name a few guys that should be mentioned, there is just one player that is far and away the clear winner. And it's no surprise that it's Zack Greinke.
There was no pitcher in baseball this season or even in the past couple of seasons that put up numbers like Greinke did, and had Greinke been on a team other than the Royals, his numbers would have been even more impressive. Why is that? Because while he did win 16 games, he also lost eight times. So what? Well out of those eight times, in four of those games he gave up three runs or fewer. He also had eight no decisions in which he gave up three runs or fewer. On average, he received less than four runs of support in his starts which is just attrocious.
Greinke put up remarkable numbers and it's amazing to think that in 2006, Greinke nearly walked away from the game at the age of 22. He took most of the 2006 season off for personal reasons but returned in 2007 and was ready to show-off his skills. Greinke has always had enormous potential and it's great that he's finally showcasing it. Greinke seems to be in favor of staying away from the larger markets as he's a very personal guy who doesn't like the attention, so unfortunately, his biggest opponent will likely remain his own team from now until the Royals get a better lineup.
Runner-Up: Felix Hernandez - P - Seattle Mariners
Who'll Likely Win: Zack Greinke - P - Kansas City Royals
Pre-Season Pick: Roy Halladay - P - Toronto Blue Jays
National League
I honestly can't remember a time in which a league has three pitchers are so close to one another in the Cy Young voting. While there is one guy that likely won't win it, he does need to be mentioned. Adam Wainwright had an outstanding season in which he lead the National League with 19 wins and 233 innings pitched. He also finished in the top five in ERA, and while most years those numbers would certainly be enough, he'll likely finish third this season in Cy Young voting.
To me, it's really a coin flip between Tim Lincecum and Chris Carpenter, and a case could certainly be made for both. And I'm going to take the easy way out and say that these two are both equally deserving of this award and should share it.
I know players sharing an award is pretty lame and probably won't gain much support, but I couldn't choose one over the other. On one hand, Lincecum is the most dominant pitcher in baseball and was in the top five in wins, ERA, strikeouts, innings pitched and WHIP. After winning the award in 2008 with outstanding numbers, he improved in most of his statistical categories this season. He lowered his walks, ERA, WHIP and BAA.
As for Carpenter, what he did this season may be more impressive as he had only appeared in five games - prior to this season - since 2006. After winning the Cy Young award in 2005, he had a successful 2006 season but fell short of defending his title. After injuring his elbow on Opening Day in 2007, he took a few months off to rehab before ultimately undergoing Tommy John Surgery in the middle of the 2007 season. He returned late in 2008 and put up great numbers in limited action, but nobody expected his first season back from surgery to be this successful.
This season, Carpenter lead the National League in ERA and finished in the top five in Wins and WHIP. He only gave up more than four runs two times this season. If he could take back those two starts, he would have been 17-2 with a 1.73 ERA. That's not a reasoning to vote for him, but it does go to show just how good he was. One thing that will hurt Carpenter is having his teammate stealing away votes from him.
I don't know who'll win this one. I think that most voters will go with Carpenter because of leading the league in ERA, having more wins than Lincecum and also being on a winning team. But I think it's a really close race that will be one to pay attention to.
Runner-Up: Adam Wainwright - P - St. Louis Cardinals
Who'll Likely Win: Chris Carpenter - P - St. Louis Cardinals.
Pre-Season Pick: Rich Harden - P - Chicago Cubs
American League
Unlike the National League, this race isn't even really close. And although many people will name a few guys that should be mentioned, there is just one player that is far and away the clear winner. And it's no surprise that it's Zack Greinke.
There was no pitcher in baseball this season or even in the past couple of seasons that put up numbers like Greinke did, and had Greinke been on a team other than the Royals, his numbers would have been even more impressive. Why is that? Because while he did win 16 games, he also lost eight times. So what? Well out of those eight times, in four of those games he gave up three runs or fewer. He also had eight no decisions in which he gave up three runs or fewer. On average, he received less than four runs of support in his starts which is just attrocious.
Greinke put up remarkable numbers and it's amazing to think that in 2006, Greinke nearly walked away from the game at the age of 22. He took most of the 2006 season off for personal reasons but returned in 2007 and was ready to show-off his skills. Greinke has always had enormous potential and it's great that he's finally showcasing it. Greinke seems to be in favor of staying away from the larger markets as he's a very personal guy who doesn't like the attention, so unfortunately, his biggest opponent will likely remain his own team from now until the Royals get a better lineup.
Runner-Up: Felix Hernandez - P - Seattle Mariners
Who'll Likely Win: Zack Greinke - P - Kansas City Royals
Pre-Season Pick: Roy Halladay - P - Toronto Blue Jays
October 8, 2009
Award Predictions: Rookie of the Year
National League
The NL had a few rookies make big impacts on their teams this season. Off of memory, I can't remember a year in which a league featured so many rookies that should be mentioned for Rookie of the Year. To me, there are eight candidates that someone could make a compelling argument for.
- Tommy Hanson - P - Atlanta Braves
- Andrew McCutchen - OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
- Chris Coghlan - OF - Florida Marlins
- J.A. Happ - P - Philadelphia Phillies
- Garrett Jones - 1B/OF - Pittsburgh Pirates
- Casey McGehee - 2B/3B - Milwaukee Brewers
- Randy Wells - P - Chicago Cubs
- Dexter Fowler - OF - Colorado Rockies
Unlike the rest of the players (besides Casey McGehee), Jones never carried the illustrious "Top Prospect" status that these other players have at one point or another. He was drafted by the Atlanta Braves in 1999 and later cut after posting marginal numbers in three rookie ball seasons. He was signed a few days later by the Minnesota Twins where he spent seven years in the organization, eventually making his Major League debut in 2007. But with guys like Michael Cuddyer (RF), Jason Kubel (DH), and Justin Morneau (1B) blocking him, Jones never got an opportunity to do much of anything for the Twins. He failed to make it back to the Majors in 2008 which eventually lead to the Twins cutting him after the season. The Pirates then stepped up and the (now) 28-year-old Jones a shot.
He started this season with the Indianapolis Indians in the Independent League, the same league he's started at every year since 2005. He played well and was eventually called-up by the Pirates in late June to take the place of Nyjer Morgan who was traded to the Washington Nationals. With McCutchen, the Pirates' top prospect, handed the reigns to center field and three other players looking for playing time in the outfield, it looked as though Jones was going to have to earn his playing time.
But thankfully, the Pirates decided to start him everyday to see just what exactly they had in Jones, and he surpassed any expectations the Pirates had of him. He hit ten home runs in the month of July, earning himself NL Rookie-of-the-Month honors, before finishing off the season with 21 total home runs in just 314 at-bats. He also helped make a futile Pirates team fun to watch, which in itself is saying a lot.
In no way should any Twins fans feel upset over the Twins not holding onto this guy. While I'm sure many would have liked to see him stick around, I really can't blame the organization for cutting him, especially when we have an All-Star first baseman and (at least at the time) five outfielders competing for four spots (DH). Jones just needed the opportunity, which I'm glad the Pirates gave him. Hopefully he can become a cornerstone player for the (always) re-building Pirates.
Runner-Up: Casey McGehee - 2B/3B - Milwaukee Brewers
Who'll Likely Win: Chris Coghlan - OF - Florida Marlins
Pre-Season Pick: Cameron Maybin - OF - Florida Marlins
American League
The AL also features an octuplet of deserving rookies. Although the NL's crop of rookies may have put up more impressive numbers, this A.L. group featured more high profile prospects including five players from my pre-season Top 50 MiLB Prospects for 2009. Here are my most deserving American League rookies.- Rick Porcello - P - Detroit Tigers
- Gordon Beckham - 3B - Chicago White Sox
- Brett Anderson - P - Oakland Athletics
- Elvis Andrus - SS - Texas Rangers
- Matt Wieters - C - Baltimore Orioles
- Nolan Reimold - OF - Baltimore Orioles
- Andrew Bailey - P - Oakland Athletics
- Jeff Niemann - P - Tampa Bay Rays
To me, you couldn't go wrong with picking either. Beckham did great things for the White Sox after being recalled in June. He hit for power, drove in runs and filled a position of weakness for the White Sox. In just 378 at-bats the former Georgia Bulldog hit .270/.347/.460 with 14 home runs and 63 RBI. Had Beckham played the entire season, he likely would have finished with somewhere around 20 home runs and 100 RBI. But unfortunately for him, he didn't, which is a huge reason why Bailey to me is the most deserving.
Closing out a game is a high profile job in Major League Baseball. Generally teams will pay top dollar for a guy that comes in to throw sometimes just a handful of pitches to earn a stat that some believe is the most overrated stat in the game. But to me, it requires something special to close out games night-in and night-out and while I do think that closers are paid too much for the amount of work they put in, I do understand why teams would want to invest in a player that does it well.
Bailey stepped in early this season and surpassed 2008 standout Brad Ziegler and veteran Michael Wuertz on the depth charts. Bailey, with no MLB experience, handled the job as well as any rookie could. He blew three of his first five save opportunities, but from June on, he was 24 for 25 in save opportunities and posted a 1.58 ERA. He also struck out 91 batters in just 83 1/3 innings on the season. Bailey may not be considered an elite closer by many just yet, but he's certainly not far behind. Here is how Bailey would have ranked in many stat categories this season amongst other closers in MLB (and for the sake of the argument, I'm only counting guys who attempted at least 20 saves, which would be 29 players):
- Saves: 20th
- ERA: 3rd
- WHIP: 1st
- BAA: T-1st
- Strikeouts: 3rd
- Walks: T-11th
Runner-Up: Gordon Beckham - 3B - Chicago White Sox
Who'll Likely Win: Elvis Andrus - SS - Texas Rangers
Pre-Season Pick: Matt Wieters - C - Baltimore Orioles
October 7, 2009
Unbelievable
I'm still speechless.
My arm hurts from waving my Homer Hanky, my clothes smell like I sat inside a cockpit for two days (or how I'd imagine your clothes would smell under that circumstance), my throat hurts from yelling at the top of my lungs, I evidently missed a (surprise) mid-term while skipping class and I probably won't be able to fall asleep tonight because my heart rate hasn't dropped to my normal state since I left.
But could you honestly ask for it any other way?
(I'll give you a hint, I'm not the guy on the left or in the middle.)
My arm hurts from waving my Homer Hanky, my clothes smell like I sat inside a cockpit for two days (or how I'd imagine your clothes would smell under that circumstance), my throat hurts from yelling at the top of my lungs, I evidently missed a (surprise) mid-term while skipping class and I probably won't be able to fall asleep tonight because my heart rate hasn't dropped to my normal state since I left.
But could you honestly ask for it any other way?
(I'll give you a hint, I'm not the guy on the left or in the middle.)GO TWINS!
October 5, 2009
They never quit on us
Last year, after 162 games were over, the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox had to determine the division winner by having a one-game playoff in Chicago. A year later, the Twins and Detroit Tigers find themselves in the same situation. But unlike last year, the Twins hold a significant advantage heading into Tuesday's season-deciding game.
As some may remember, the venue of the Twins and White Sox playoff game was decided by the flip of a coin. But soon after the Twins lost the coin flip and then to the White Sox, Major League Baseball implemented a rule change which stated that the venue of any one-game playoffs will not be by the sheer dumb luck of a coin flip, it will be by who has won the season series, which in both last year's case and this year's case would be the Twins.
Since the Twins beat the Tigers in ten of 18 games this season, the Twins will host the Tigers on Tuesday at the Metrodome. Under normal circumstances, the one-game playoff would be held the day after the season ends. But as many know, the Metrodome is holding a different event on Monday (I'm not going to even mention it as I'm sure everyone already knows) which is why the Twins and Tigers will play on Tuesday, one day before the start of the playoffs.
In their effort to tame the Tigers, the Twins will send Scott Baker, the undisputed Ace of the Twins' pitching staff. After a poor start to the season, Baker has settled in and has given the Twins a great chance to win time after time. In fact, since the start of June, Baker is 13-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 23 starts. Baker's repertoire features a great fastball, a slider, curveball and a change-up. According to Fangraphs.com, the effectiveness of Baker's fastball is behind that of only Zach Grienke and Justin Verlander's in the American League, two Cy Young candidates.
In turn, the Tigers will try to stop the streaking Twins by sending Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Rick Porcello to the mound. At 165 innings, Porcello is over the Tigers desired inning count on the season, which along with his overall experience makes some wonder if the 20-year-old is ready for such a big game. The other viable possibility is to have Edwin Jackson start on three-days rest, but nothing has been suggested to make me believe the Tigers are actually considering that option.
Porcello has made four starts this season against the Twins, but despite having an ERA of 3.09, he's won just once while losing twice. Both losses came on the turf at the Metrodome, a surface on which he's struggled on all season.
On top of that, Porcello will be responsible for halting a fired-up Twins offense that has scored 36 runs in four straight victories, lead by the efforts of Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. The two corner outfielders have gone 15 for 33 with six home runs and 19 RBI in the four game win streak. And luckily for the Twins, both have had success this season against Porcello. The two are a combined 12 for 20 with three doubles against the Tigers youngster.
Despite nearly everyone counting them out just a few weeks ago, the Twins have proven just why they're one of the best organizations in baseball. They have shown a resilience that other teams could only dream of and even more importantly have given their fans a team to be proud of. Even when their were overwhelming odds against them, and just about all of us gave up on them, they never quit on us.
As some may remember, the venue of the Twins and White Sox playoff game was decided by the flip of a coin. But soon after the Twins lost the coin flip and then to the White Sox, Major League Baseball implemented a rule change which stated that the venue of any one-game playoffs will not be by the sheer dumb luck of a coin flip, it will be by who has won the season series, which in both last year's case and this year's case would be the Twins.
Since the Twins beat the Tigers in ten of 18 games this season, the Twins will host the Tigers on Tuesday at the Metrodome. Under normal circumstances, the one-game playoff would be held the day after the season ends. But as many know, the Metrodome is holding a different event on Monday (I'm not going to even mention it as I'm sure everyone already knows) which is why the Twins and Tigers will play on Tuesday, one day before the start of the playoffs.
In their effort to tame the Tigers, the Twins will send Scott Baker, the undisputed Ace of the Twins' pitching staff. After a poor start to the season, Baker has settled in and has given the Twins a great chance to win time after time. In fact, since the start of June, Baker is 13-3 with a 3.62 ERA in 23 starts. Baker's repertoire features a great fastball, a slider, curveball and a change-up. According to Fangraphs.com, the effectiveness of Baker's fastball is behind that of only Zach Grienke and Justin Verlander's in the American League, two Cy Young candidates.
In turn, the Tigers will try to stop the streaking Twins by sending Rookie-of-the-Year candidate Rick Porcello to the mound. At 165 innings, Porcello is over the Tigers desired inning count on the season, which along with his overall experience makes some wonder if the 20-year-old is ready for such a big game. The other viable possibility is to have Edwin Jackson start on three-days rest, but nothing has been suggested to make me believe the Tigers are actually considering that option.
Porcello has made four starts this season against the Twins, but despite having an ERA of 3.09, he's won just once while losing twice. Both losses came on the turf at the Metrodome, a surface on which he's struggled on all season.
On top of that, Porcello will be responsible for halting a fired-up Twins offense that has scored 36 runs in four straight victories, lead by the efforts of Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. The two corner outfielders have gone 15 for 33 with six home runs and 19 RBI in the four game win streak. And luckily for the Twins, both have had success this season against Porcello. The two are a combined 12 for 20 with three doubles against the Tigers youngster.
Despite nearly everyone counting them out just a few weeks ago, the Twins have proven just why they're one of the best organizations in baseball. They have shown a resilience that other teams could only dream of and even more importantly have given their fans a team to be proud of. Even when their were overwhelming odds against them, and just about all of us gave up on them, they never quit on us.
October 1, 2009
Great news during rough times
Reports came in Tuesday night that Dominican prospect Miguel Angel Sano and the Twins have agreed terms on a contract. On the surface, to many, this isn't a very big deal at all. But in reality, it's huge news for the Minnesota Twins and I think Twins fans should be well aware at what this signing means for the Twins. It also couldn't come at a better time as the Twins struggle to stay afloat in the American League Central.
Sano is reportedly being handed a $3.15 million signing bonus, a solid dollar amount for both Sano and the Twins. Speculation mounted over Sano's true age prior to July 2nd, the first day International free agents are free to sign with potential ball clubs. The speculation grew into an investigation by Major League Baseball that ultimately has come up inconclusive. After tests showed that he was between the ages of 16 and 17, not much new has been reported since the start of the investigation (unless of course, I just missed it).
With an investigation over his head, Sano's projected cost plummeted. At the price that Sano signed, it was a good deal for him, although probably not the deal he was originally looking for, and it was also a great deal for the Twins. And although the investigation may not be completely over, the contract is contingent on Sano's ability to acquire a work visa, something he can't do if he's caught lying about his age.
Minnesota is getting a player who has drawn comparison to Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria to name a few. Even though comparing a teenager that hasn't picked up a ball in the United States is beyond worthless, it does show the skillset that Sano has. At 6'3'' and 190 lbs., Sano has great potential in his frame and although he's currently listed as a shortstop, he's expected to switch to either third base or the outfield as he continues to fill out. Meanwhile, Sano is coming to an organization lacking a top prospect, meaning he'll likely receive great treatment once he's over here.
However, I don't expect him to be in the Majors in two years like he's hoping. Judging by the way the Twins have handled other prospects over the years, I'm guessing he'll spend at least a full year at each stop, meaning he'll make it to Minnesota around his 22nd birthday. But being as the Twins have never spent this much on a prospect not-named Joe Mauer, I guess nothing is a certainty. (For a nice video of Sano, click here)
This move is just one of several albeit surprising moves by the Twins' management this summer. During the draft, some questioned the team's reasoning for drafting four college pitchers in the first three rounds, especially when this organization hasn't necessarily had problems developing pitchers through the years. It immediately turned out alright as three of the pitchers combined to go 4-0 with a 1.92 ERA in 42 innings this summer. The first round pick, Kyle Gibson, signed late but was a top five talent prior to fracturing his forearm before the draft. Gibson signed late, but his signing was a huge win for the Twins as Gibson always had the option of going back to college if he didn't like his contract.
The Twins in the past have stayed away from amateur players (primarily in the draft) that could demand top dollar amounts. For instance, the organization drafted Ben Revere in 2007, which in hindsight has worked out great, but is a move clearly motivated by finances. While many teams draft with the player's signability in mind, the Twins (at least in the past) have seemed to use that as their starting point in drafts.
Another surprise came when the Twins inked outfield prospect Max Kepler to a deal for $800,000. It was the largest signing bonus given to any prospect not from the United States or Latin America. But that price might be very well worth it as Kepler's been talked about as the highest rated prospect to come from Europe in...well...ever. Kepler, like Sano, is listed around 6'3'' and 190 lbs. and he too is considered a five-tool prospect. Both will also likely start their professional careers with the Gulf Coast League Twins in 2010.
The Twins' management have been very aggressive this summer in signing amateur free agents, and it probably is fair to say that the management will remain aggressive this off-season whether it be in free agency or in trades.
Bill Smith hasn't had the greatest success from the players he's signed, but you can't knock his lack of trying. When everyone became upset at the trade deadline for not addressing either the rotation or bullpen, he pulled through and acquired Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano, three players that have played big roles for us down the stretch.
In no way am I suggesting that Smith deserves a medal of honor for these moves, but I love the recent moves he's made. And although he did give them the contracts, you can't blame Smith if these prospects don't work out. The bottom line is that he's being aggressive in an area we generally aren't, and although we all want that money to be going towards high-buck free agents, keep in mind that Nick Punto is making $4 million next season while Sano will be making $3.15 over the course of the next few years. While that's a bad example (as Punto's contract is pretty horrid and you can't use that as a reason this is a good deal), the bottom line is that this could be a great investment for the Twins and I hope that they'll remain aggressive in years to come while pursuing amateur free agents.
Sano is reportedly being handed a $3.15 million signing bonus, a solid dollar amount for both Sano and the Twins. Speculation mounted over Sano's true age prior to July 2nd, the first day International free agents are free to sign with potential ball clubs. The speculation grew into an investigation by Major League Baseball that ultimately has come up inconclusive. After tests showed that he was between the ages of 16 and 17, not much new has been reported since the start of the investigation (unless of course, I just missed it).
With an investigation over his head, Sano's projected cost plummeted. At the price that Sano signed, it was a good deal for him, although probably not the deal he was originally looking for, and it was also a great deal for the Twins. And although the investigation may not be completely over, the contract is contingent on Sano's ability to acquire a work visa, something he can't do if he's caught lying about his age.
Minnesota is getting a player who has drawn comparison to Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and Evan Longoria to name a few. Even though comparing a teenager that hasn't picked up a ball in the United States is beyond worthless, it does show the skillset that Sano has. At 6'3'' and 190 lbs., Sano has great potential in his frame and although he's currently listed as a shortstop, he's expected to switch to either third base or the outfield as he continues to fill out. Meanwhile, Sano is coming to an organization lacking a top prospect, meaning he'll likely receive great treatment once he's over here.
However, I don't expect him to be in the Majors in two years like he's hoping. Judging by the way the Twins have handled other prospects over the years, I'm guessing he'll spend at least a full year at each stop, meaning he'll make it to Minnesota around his 22nd birthday. But being as the Twins have never spent this much on a prospect not-named Joe Mauer, I guess nothing is a certainty. (For a nice video of Sano, click here)
This move is just one of several albeit surprising moves by the Twins' management this summer. During the draft, some questioned the team's reasoning for drafting four college pitchers in the first three rounds, especially when this organization hasn't necessarily had problems developing pitchers through the years. It immediately turned out alright as three of the pitchers combined to go 4-0 with a 1.92 ERA in 42 innings this summer. The first round pick, Kyle Gibson, signed late but was a top five talent prior to fracturing his forearm before the draft. Gibson signed late, but his signing was a huge win for the Twins as Gibson always had the option of going back to college if he didn't like his contract.
The Twins in the past have stayed away from amateur players (primarily in the draft) that could demand top dollar amounts. For instance, the organization drafted Ben Revere in 2007, which in hindsight has worked out great, but is a move clearly motivated by finances. While many teams draft with the player's signability in mind, the Twins (at least in the past) have seemed to use that as their starting point in drafts.
Another surprise came when the Twins inked outfield prospect Max Kepler to a deal for $800,000. It was the largest signing bonus given to any prospect not from the United States or Latin America. But that price might be very well worth it as Kepler's been talked about as the highest rated prospect to come from Europe in...well...ever. Kepler, like Sano, is listed around 6'3'' and 190 lbs. and he too is considered a five-tool prospect. Both will also likely start their professional careers with the Gulf Coast League Twins in 2010.
The Twins' management have been very aggressive this summer in signing amateur free agents, and it probably is fair to say that the management will remain aggressive this off-season whether it be in free agency or in trades.
Bill Smith hasn't had the greatest success from the players he's signed, but you can't knock his lack of trying. When everyone became upset at the trade deadline for not addressing either the rotation or bullpen, he pulled through and acquired Jon Rauch, Ron Mahay and Carl Pavano, three players that have played big roles for us down the stretch.
In no way am I suggesting that Smith deserves a medal of honor for these moves, but I love the recent moves he's made. And although he did give them the contracts, you can't blame Smith if these prospects don't work out. The bottom line is that he's being aggressive in an area we generally aren't, and although we all want that money to be going towards high-buck free agents, keep in mind that Nick Punto is making $4 million next season while Sano will be making $3.15 over the course of the next few years. While that's a bad example (as Punto's contract is pretty horrid and you can't use that as a reason this is a good deal), the bottom line is that this could be a great investment for the Twins and I hope that they'll remain aggressive in years to come while pursuing amateur free agents.
September 27, 2009
Showdown in Motown
The Twins took two of three games against the Kansas City Royals while the Detroit Tigers lost two of three to the White Sox, allowing the Twins to pull within two games of the division leading Tigers.
The Twins are playing their best baseball of the season this month while the Tigers continue to take a sharp nosedive. After winning the first six games of the month, the Tigers are now 8-11 since September 8th. In that span, they've been outscored 84 to 98 and have scored two or fewer runs in six of the 19 games. Meanwhile, since September 7th (their last 19 games), the Twins are 13-6 and have outscored their opponents 103 to 73.
The Twins are 'clicking' both at the plate and on the mound, which is completely the opposite for the Tigers. Joe Christensen from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune posted a possible outcome table. And as you can tell, the Twins need a series victory in order to have a realistic shot at winning the division. If they tie, they'll need all the luck in the world to win. And of course if they loose three or four games, the Twins will be eliminated.
The Twins and Tigers faced off against one another at the Metrodome two weekends ago where the Twins won two of three. Unforunately, they aren't at home and will have to try and win at Comerica Park, a place the Tigers have won 65% of their games played there. The Twins on-the-otherhand have a winning percentage of 47% on the road this season.
On paper, the pitching matchups sure look to favor the Tigers. Even without Edwin Jackson starting, the Tigers have their Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander starting on Wednesday with their Rookie of the Year candidate Rick Porcello going on Monday. But Carl Pavano has been a Tiger killer this season and Brian Duensing has been outstanding since joining the rotation. So couple them with the teams best two pitchers, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, gives me reason to feel optimistic about the matchups.
The Tigers offense is strong, but the Twins offense has been getting great production from their eight and nine hitters in the lineup. Both Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert continue to swing hot bats this month despite being despicable at the plate throughout the season. Tolbert has been hitting primarily eighth and playing third base since joining the lineup and is hitting .381/.395/.500 in 42 September at-bats. Punto has been playing second base and hitting ninth, but has a .310/.437/.397 hitting line through 58 at-bats this month. Both were big reasons why Denard Span drove in six runs on Saturday.
Two players the Twins will surely miss in this series will be Joe Crede and Justin Morneau. The two have been Tiger mashers throughout their careers but both are out for the season with injuries. Instead, the Twins will rely on both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel (besides Joe Mauer, of course) to carry the load in the middle-of-the-lineup. While Cuddyer's having a great month, he hasn't put up great numbers against Detroit throughout his career. Kubel has hit terribly all month, which could be of result from him playing in right field on a near day-to-day basis. He is actually zero for his last 13. Thankfully the Twins have Span, Mauer and even Delmon Young who have all hit well against the Tigers.
The Twins have been playing great these past few weeks, but the pressure is definitely on right now. The Tigers have a lot of things that could give them an edge here and there, but if the Twins continue to play the way they have, it should be a good week for Twins baseball.
On the side...
I've been slackin' on the blog as of late. I can't promise more frequent posts in the near future, but I'm definitely not giving up on the site (in case anyone was wondering).
But I do have a few things to mention.
Chris Jaffe from The Hardball Times wrote a great article last week in which he lists his 10 greatest games in the Metrodome. If you read the comment section, I felt there was one more worth mentioning. But it's a great article and one I hope everyone takes a few minutes to read. While the Metrodome hasn't been the best home, it's certainly had some great memories.
Andrew Kneeland is now blogging at TwinsTarget.com. In fact, he's already posted his first One-on-One with Dan Osterbrock which I hope everyone checks out. David Gorski is now blogging at Twins Fix (Andrew's old site) and is doing a great job so far.
Seth Stohs has been hosting a live podcast almost every night this past week. So if you're looking for some great Twins talk, make sure to check out some of his past shows.
Brian Pietrzak wrote a great review of The Machine, written by everybody's favorite writer, Joe Posanski. I already have my copy but I am going to finish up The Soul of Baseball (also written by Posnanski) first.
And finally, while he's been blogging for a few weeks now, I wanted to mention that Shawn Berg has started a blog called On the road with... Make sure to head over there now as he's posting his good and bad Twins memories.
And finally, you can find me on Twitter at Twitter.com/JoshsThoughts or feel free to e-mail me at jajohnson021@yahoo.com
The Twins are playing their best baseball of the season this month while the Tigers continue to take a sharp nosedive. After winning the first six games of the month, the Tigers are now 8-11 since September 8th. In that span, they've been outscored 84 to 98 and have scored two or fewer runs in six of the 19 games. Meanwhile, since September 7th (their last 19 games), the Twins are 13-6 and have outscored their opponents 103 to 73.
The Twins are 'clicking' both at the plate and on the mound, which is completely the opposite for the Tigers. Joe Christensen from the Minneapolis Star-Tribune posted a possible outcome table. And as you can tell, the Twins need a series victory in order to have a realistic shot at winning the division. If they tie, they'll need all the luck in the world to win. And of course if they loose three or four games, the Twins will be eliminated.
The Twins and Tigers faced off against one another at the Metrodome two weekends ago where the Twins won two of three. Unforunately, they aren't at home and will have to try and win at Comerica Park, a place the Tigers have won 65% of their games played there. The Twins on-the-otherhand have a winning percentage of 47% on the road this season.
On paper, the pitching matchups sure look to favor the Tigers. Even without Edwin Jackson starting, the Tigers have their Cy Young candidate Justin Verlander starting on Wednesday with their Rookie of the Year candidate Rick Porcello going on Monday. But Carl Pavano has been a Tiger killer this season and Brian Duensing has been outstanding since joining the rotation. So couple them with the teams best two pitchers, Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn, gives me reason to feel optimistic about the matchups.
The Tigers offense is strong, but the Twins offense has been getting great production from their eight and nine hitters in the lineup. Both Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert continue to swing hot bats this month despite being despicable at the plate throughout the season. Tolbert has been hitting primarily eighth and playing third base since joining the lineup and is hitting .381/.395/.500 in 42 September at-bats. Punto has been playing second base and hitting ninth, but has a .310/.437/.397 hitting line through 58 at-bats this month. Both were big reasons why Denard Span drove in six runs on Saturday.
Two players the Twins will surely miss in this series will be Joe Crede and Justin Morneau. The two have been Tiger mashers throughout their careers but both are out for the season with injuries. Instead, the Twins will rely on both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel (besides Joe Mauer, of course) to carry the load in the middle-of-the-lineup. While Cuddyer's having a great month, he hasn't put up great numbers against Detroit throughout his career. Kubel has hit terribly all month, which could be of result from him playing in right field on a near day-to-day basis. He is actually zero for his last 13. Thankfully the Twins have Span, Mauer and even Delmon Young who have all hit well against the Tigers.
The Twins have been playing great these past few weeks, but the pressure is definitely on right now. The Tigers have a lot of things that could give them an edge here and there, but if the Twins continue to play the way they have, it should be a good week for Twins baseball.
***
On the side...
I've been slackin' on the blog as of late. I can't promise more frequent posts in the near future, but I'm definitely not giving up on the site (in case anyone was wondering).
But I do have a few things to mention.
Chris Jaffe from The Hardball Times wrote a great article last week in which he lists his 10 greatest games in the Metrodome. If you read the comment section, I felt there was one more worth mentioning. But it's a great article and one I hope everyone takes a few minutes to read. While the Metrodome hasn't been the best home, it's certainly had some great memories.
Andrew Kneeland is now blogging at TwinsTarget.com. In fact, he's already posted his first One-on-One with Dan Osterbrock which I hope everyone checks out. David Gorski is now blogging at Twins Fix (Andrew's old site) and is doing a great job so far.
Seth Stohs has been hosting a live podcast almost every night this past week. So if you're looking for some great Twins talk, make sure to check out some of his past shows.
Brian Pietrzak wrote a great review of The Machine, written by everybody's favorite writer, Joe Posanski. I already have my copy but I am going to finish up The Soul of Baseball (also written by Posnanski) first.
And finally, while he's been blogging for a few weeks now, I wanted to mention that Shawn Berg has started a blog called On the road with... Make sure to head over there now as he's posting his good and bad Twins memories.
And finally, you can find me on Twitter at Twitter.com/JoshsThoughts or feel free to e-mail me at jajohnson021@yahoo.com
September 18, 2009
The Twins' Outfield Dilemma
Ron Gardenhire recently talked about his logjam in the outfield and what he plans to do with it in 2010. Gardenhire admitted that it's been a challenge this season to give everyone enough playing time and said that he's tired of shifting lead-off hitter Denard Span around the outfield. Thus far, Span has logged in 1126 1/3 innings in the outfield this season. 39% of that time has been spent in left field, 43% in center and the final 18% in right field. All in all, Span has a UZR/150 of 0.6, down from his UZR/150 of 3.9 in 2008.
Offensively, Span is very valuable and there's a reason Gardenhire is feeling the need to give him a 'set' position. He is 10th in the American League with a .389 OBP, which also ranks him third in the Majors among lead-off hitters. Span also takes (on average) nearly four pitches per plate appearance, which also is near the league lead among lead-off hitters. There's no question that Span is an integral part to this ball clubs success. The question is, where do you play him?
Gardenhire reportedly hinted at leaving Span in center field next season, but he quickly mentioned that it'll depend on who is still with the ball club, obviously making us assume that one of Carlos Gomez or Delmon Young will be traded this off-season.
Over the last two seasons, I've let my 'favorite' be known. But at least right now, I'm having a hard time choosing between which I'd prefer to keep. While I still believe one player has more potential than the other, I also recognize that one provides a valuable commodity to this ball club that is useful regardless of his putrid offense.
It seems as though many of Young's problems stem (mostly) from poor mechanics. However, he hasn't fixed those mechanics and has not garnered any reason for me to believe that he's going to turn it around other than just using the same old excuse, that he still has a lot of potential. Young is now three (full) seasons into his MLB career and is regressing instead of progressing. Obviously it's too early to abandon ship on a (recently turned) 24-year-old, but it's getting harder and harder to support him.
As for Gomez, his defense is the reason the Twins traded for him, fully knowing his offense is very (very) raw. I have thought for a while that Gomez should be sent back to Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and just the 'basics' at the plate (as in, don't swing at a pitch coming near your head, how to lay down a bunt, etc.). But that obviously wasn't in the Twins' plans and they now have wasted an entire year for both Young and Gomez. What exactly have either of them gained from sharing at-bats and starts this season? At 23-years-old, they should just be reaching the Major Leagues (a problem that was out of the Twins' hands). But the Twins felt it was more valuable to have both play only three days a week while the other just sits there... and does nothing.
To me, the Twins should have sent Gomez to Triple-A right out of Spring Training. Although Gomez had a solid triple-slash line this Spring, the Twins were delusional if they felt that he had completely turned the corner after last season. And even so, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since nobody knew how Span would play after a terrible spring and season in which he seemingly came out of nowhere. But don't you think that after a month of April in which he hit .195/.250/.293 in 16 games was enough to finally make the (right) move? Of course not.
Instead, the Twins have made both young, raw, yet-gifted players sit on the bench and learn the game by watching. And unless they're trying to mold these guys into being coaches, I don't see much benefit from a hitter sitting on the bench and not getting regular at-bats. Gardenhire throwing them batting practice is not enough. Especially for aggressive hitters like Young and Gomez.
The Twins shouldn't be even faced with a dilemma of any sort. Instead, they should have let Gomez and Young both have the playing time they deserve and after the season, move one of them. It's likely that one of the two would have stepped up if given the proper opportunity and instead, the Twins are now faced with a dilemma on which one to give up on. If both played great, we'd still likely have to move one, but it wouldn't be a dilemma, at least in my opinion. But this is a dilemma because both have little trade value and the Twins will be abandoning ship on a young player with little-to-no return value, and a player they gave up a lot for.
The Twins shot themselves in the foot on this one.
Offensively, Span is very valuable and there's a reason Gardenhire is feeling the need to give him a 'set' position. He is 10th in the American League with a .389 OBP, which also ranks him third in the Majors among lead-off hitters. Span also takes (on average) nearly four pitches per plate appearance, which also is near the league lead among lead-off hitters. There's no question that Span is an integral part to this ball clubs success. The question is, where do you play him?
Gardenhire reportedly hinted at leaving Span in center field next season, but he quickly mentioned that it'll depend on who is still with the ball club, obviously making us assume that one of Carlos Gomez or Delmon Young will be traded this off-season.
Over the last two seasons, I've let my 'favorite' be known. But at least right now, I'm having a hard time choosing between which I'd prefer to keep. While I still believe one player has more potential than the other, I also recognize that one provides a valuable commodity to this ball club that is useful regardless of his putrid offense.
It seems as though many of Young's problems stem (mostly) from poor mechanics. However, he hasn't fixed those mechanics and has not garnered any reason for me to believe that he's going to turn it around other than just using the same old excuse, that he still has a lot of potential. Young is now three (full) seasons into his MLB career and is regressing instead of progressing. Obviously it's too early to abandon ship on a (recently turned) 24-year-old, but it's getting harder and harder to support him.
As for Gomez, his defense is the reason the Twins traded for him, fully knowing his offense is very (very) raw. I have thought for a while that Gomez should be sent back to Triple-A to work on pitch recognition and just the 'basics' at the plate (as in, don't swing at a pitch coming near your head, how to lay down a bunt, etc.). But that obviously wasn't in the Twins' plans and they now have wasted an entire year for both Young and Gomez. What exactly have either of them gained from sharing at-bats and starts this season? At 23-years-old, they should just be reaching the Major Leagues (a problem that was out of the Twins' hands). But the Twins felt it was more valuable to have both play only three days a week while the other just sits there... and does nothing.
To me, the Twins should have sent Gomez to Triple-A right out of Spring Training. Although Gomez had a solid triple-slash line this Spring, the Twins were delusional if they felt that he had completely turned the corner after last season. And even so, I'll give them the benefit of the doubt since nobody knew how Span would play after a terrible spring and season in which he seemingly came out of nowhere. But don't you think that after a month of April in which he hit .195/.250/.293 in 16 games was enough to finally make the (right) move? Of course not.
Instead, the Twins have made both young, raw, yet-gifted players sit on the bench and learn the game by watching. And unless they're trying to mold these guys into being coaches, I don't see much benefit from a hitter sitting on the bench and not getting regular at-bats. Gardenhire throwing them batting practice is not enough. Especially for aggressive hitters like Young and Gomez.
The Twins shouldn't be even faced with a dilemma of any sort. Instead, they should have let Gomez and Young both have the playing time they deserve and after the season, move one of them. It's likely that one of the two would have stepped up if given the proper opportunity and instead, the Twins are now faced with a dilemma on which one to give up on. If both played great, we'd still likely have to move one, but it wouldn't be a dilemma, at least in my opinion. But this is a dilemma because both have little trade value and the Twins will be abandoning ship on a young player with little-to-no return value, and a player they gave up a lot for.
The Twins shot themselves in the foot on this one.
September 9, 2009
An early look into the not-so-distant future.
Several weeks ago, before I lost all of my free time to school, I answered a few questions that Peter Bourgeois sent in to me.
Since then, the Twins have been very busy signing draft picks, upgrading their bullpen and pulling back within manageable distance of the division crown when, at the time, it looked as though they were done for. Unfortunately, the Twins are now sitting five games behind the Tigers with just 29 games remaining, seven of which are against Detroit.
But even with a good month left of baseball to be played, everyone is gearing up for what could be the most exciting off-season in Minnesota Twins history. Despite a fairly weak free agent class, the Twins will have money to spend. But how much is the question. Last week, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune hosted a live chat, and this caught my eye:
I've speculated on this in the past. The Twins have a similar market (actually, if we're getting down to the specifics, it's larger) than that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Obviously just because they spend money doesn't mean we have to, but I've always felt that the Twins could spend at least as much as them. After all, the Twins are going to be moving into a new stadium which will be packed full of Twins fans almost every night, much like the Cardinals and their new stadium.
But La Velle hearing from a 'Twins official' is probably a good indicator that other people feel this way as well. While I'll still be surprised to see the Twins raise their payroll nearly $30 million in just a few months, I do think that over the next three or four years, $90 or even northwards of $100 million isn't completely out of the question.
As for the 2010 season, here's how the roster looks (please note, these are just my calculations and shouldn't be taken as 100% accurate, or for that matter, anywhere near that):
But even if they could afford an elite player, I would be surprised to see the Twins go out and sign one. One thing I've come to expect over the years while following the Twins is that what you think will happen probably won't. Now that's kind of a vague statement, but it is true. When I have figured the Twins would finally splurge in free agency, they have sat back and done nothing. When I expected them to do something (anything) at the trade deadline, they have sat back and done nothing. And when I don't expect them to do anything, they go out and make a run at players that would change the whole dynamic of the ball club. And for that reason, I can't and won't get my hopes up that the Twins will add anything this off-season.
Of course, the Twins could very well trade a few players, which I truly believe they will, but who and what is a complete mystery and something that will be discussed at another time.
And looking early, here are the key areas of concern that the Twins need to address this off-season:
It's easy to point fingers at Bill Smith and co. for not equipping Ron Gardenhire and the coaching staff with the appropriate players to win this season, but his hands are kind of tied. The 2008 Twins were a great story. Nobody expected anything from the team after losing players like Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva to the ever powerful color of green, but the pitching staff turned out to be outstanding while the offense looked outstanding. I don't blame Smith for not acquiring a big bat or another pitcher last off-season, because really, they didn't look as though they necessarily needed that much help. I thought the acquisition of Joe Crede was more than enough to keep the offense atop of the American League ranks while the pitching staff continued to develop.
Only, the pitching staff and for some part, the offense, got off to an unstable start and the offense was the only thing to finally figure things out. The pitching staff that once looked to be one of the best in the league quickly turned into one of the worst. But nobody can be blamed for that. It's hard to predict pitching, especially young pitching. Smith did help bolster our bullpen, which while it's still rocky at times, it looks set for the future.
But this off-season, while I don't think the Twins will have the means to go out and acquire a top-end free agent, I do expect them to improve each area of weakness this team has. Last off-season was too hard to predict. We had one real weakness at third base which he ultimately (later than we probably would have hoped), found a solution. The rest of the squad looked solid heading into the season. Was it a Championship team? I don't know. It was strong enough to make the playoffs, that's for sure.
So now after another season with the reigns of GM, I expect things to be a little more active this off-season. Again, I honestly don't expect John Lackey or Matt Holiday to be Twins come next Spring, but could they acquire someone like J.J. Hardy or Mark DeRosa? It's at least more realistic.
The Twins are currently hovering around the 15th worst record in baseball, which as a Twins fan, is something we pay close attention to every year. If the Twins have one of the 15th worst records in baseball, their 1st round draft pick would not be surrendered if they chose to sign a Type-A free agent. At this point, that probably wouldn't be a bad thing to be in. The Twins are losing ground in the standings and although they keep holding on, at this point, it's very unlikely that they'll make the playoffs. While I'm not advocating that they throw games for the sole purpose to finish in the bottom-half of the standings, it wouldn't be the worst thing either.
But obviously, it's a pretty safe assumption that nothing will get done until number seven is signed, and while I hope it gets done early, I'm unfortunately expecting it to drag on throughout the off-season which could give the front office plenty of excuses why they're not more aggressive on the market.
I've grown more and more pessimistic over the summer and while I still love the Twins, I don't know if I have full faith in the front office or coaching staff to get this team to where it should be, which is at the top of the standings every year. The Twins might have the best hitting combination in baseball and one of the best overall players that has put on a jersey in this era, yet we have a hard time staying above .500 and play in a division with two deadbeat teams and no team that is stellar by any standards.
Something needs to change, and I truly hope that something happens this off-season to instill some of the faith that I may still have in this franchise.
Since then, the Twins have been very busy signing draft picks, upgrading their bullpen and pulling back within manageable distance of the division crown when, at the time, it looked as though they were done for. Unfortunately, the Twins are now sitting five games behind the Tigers with just 29 games remaining, seven of which are against Detroit.
But even with a good month left of baseball to be played, everyone is gearing up for what could be the most exciting off-season in Minnesota Twins history. Despite a fairly weak free agent class, the Twins will have money to spend. But how much is the question. Last week, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune hosted a live chat, and this caught my eye:
12:15 [Comment From Next Year]
How do the Twins improve the club for next year and will they spend any of that new stadium money?
12:16
La Velle:
They better. With raises through long-term deals and arbitration,the payroll should go up. I had a conversation recently with a Twins official who estimated the payroll could top $90 million next year and head toward $95-100M.
I've speculated on this in the past. The Twins have a similar market (actually, if we're getting down to the specifics, it's larger) than that of the St. Louis Cardinals. Obviously just because they spend money doesn't mean we have to, but I've always felt that the Twins could spend at least as much as them. After all, the Twins are going to be moving into a new stadium which will be packed full of Twins fans almost every night, much like the Cardinals and their new stadium.
But La Velle hearing from a 'Twins official' is probably a good indicator that other people feel this way as well. While I'll still be surprised to see the Twins raise their payroll nearly $30 million in just a few months, I do think that over the next three or four years, $90 or even northwards of $100 million isn't completely out of the question.
As for the 2010 season, here's how the roster looks (please note, these are just my calculations and shouldn't be taken as 100% accurate, or for that matter, anywhere near that):
Hitters:Obviously, not all of the serf contracts are quite accurate and the arbitration guesses are in fact just guesses. But as you can see, the Twins are already close to $80,000,000 ($79,490,000), which isn't including any free agent pick ups or taking into factor any extensions they may give to some of their current players. With Joe Mauer expecting to earn a substantial pay raise, it's doubtful that the Twins add any elite players this off-season.
C: Joe Mauer - $12,500,000
C: Jose Morales - $400,000
1B: Justin Morneau - $14,000,000
2B: Alexi Casilla - $460,000
IF: Brendan Harris - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
IF: Nick Punto - $4,000,000
IF: Matt Tolbert - $460,000
IF: Brian Buscher - $460,000
OF: Delmon Young - $1,700,000 (Arbitration guess)
OF: Denard Span - $460,000
OF: Michael Cuddyer - $8,500,000
OF: Carlos Gomez - $460,000
DH: Jason Kubel - $4,100,000
Other possibilities: Jason Pridie - $400,000, Trevor Plouffe - $400,000,
Hitting total: $49,550,000
Pitchers:
SP: Scott Baker - $3,000,000
SP: Nick Blackburn - $460,000
SP: Kevin Slowey - $460,000
SP: Francisco Liriano - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
SP: Glen Perkins - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
Other possibilities: Brian Duensing - $400,000, Jeff Manship - $400,000, Anthony Swarzak - $400,000
RP: Joe Nathan - $11,250,000
RP: Jon Rauch - $2,900,000
RP: Matt Guerrier - $2,500,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Jesse Crain - $2,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Jose Mijares - $460,000
RP: Boof Bonser - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
RP: Pat Neshek - $1,250,000 (Arbitration guess)
Other possibilities: Bobby Keppel - $460,000
Pitching total: $29,940,000
But even if they could afford an elite player, I would be surprised to see the Twins go out and sign one. One thing I've come to expect over the years while following the Twins is that what you think will happen probably won't. Now that's kind of a vague statement, but it is true. When I have figured the Twins would finally splurge in free agency, they have sat back and done nothing. When I expected them to do something (anything) at the trade deadline, they have sat back and done nothing. And when I don't expect them to do anything, they go out and make a run at players that would change the whole dynamic of the ball club. And for that reason, I can't and won't get my hopes up that the Twins will add anything this off-season.
Of course, the Twins could very well trade a few players, which I truly believe they will, but who and what is a complete mystery and something that will be discussed at another time.
And looking early, here are the key areas of concern that the Twins need to address this off-season:
Starting pitching: The Twins' Achilles heal this season has been their failure to execute (both at the plate and on the mound). But the Twins' pitching staff has given up so many runs this season that I really can't blame the offense for not scoring when they are currently ranked 8th in the Major Leagues in runs scored, opposed to the pitching staff having the 24th worst ERA. While they have scored 668 runs this season, the pitching staff has given up 657. Other than in walks, the Twins' pitching staff is below American League average in nearly every category.
Middle infield: It's no surprise to anyone that the biggest question mark regarding the offense is the hitters occupying both second base and shortstop. The Twins' second base play this year has been atrocious. So far, the Twins have fielded a .201/.285/.260 hitting line from their second basemen this season, by far the worst in the Major Leagues. Shortstop hasn't been nearly as bad, but that's not really saying a lot. The Twins have gotten terrible production from their shortstops this season. Both areas should be addressed.
It's easy to point fingers at Bill Smith and co. for not equipping Ron Gardenhire and the coaching staff with the appropriate players to win this season, but his hands are kind of tied. The 2008 Twins were a great story. Nobody expected anything from the team after losing players like Johan Santana, Torii Hunter and Carlos Silva to the ever powerful color of green, but the pitching staff turned out to be outstanding while the offense looked outstanding. I don't blame Smith for not acquiring a big bat or another pitcher last off-season, because really, they didn't look as though they necessarily needed that much help. I thought the acquisition of Joe Crede was more than enough to keep the offense atop of the American League ranks while the pitching staff continued to develop.
Only, the pitching staff and for some part, the offense, got off to an unstable start and the offense was the only thing to finally figure things out. The pitching staff that once looked to be one of the best in the league quickly turned into one of the worst. But nobody can be blamed for that. It's hard to predict pitching, especially young pitching. Smith did help bolster our bullpen, which while it's still rocky at times, it looks set for the future.
But this off-season, while I don't think the Twins will have the means to go out and acquire a top-end free agent, I do expect them to improve each area of weakness this team has. Last off-season was too hard to predict. We had one real weakness at third base which he ultimately (later than we probably would have hoped), found a solution. The rest of the squad looked solid heading into the season. Was it a Championship team? I don't know. It was strong enough to make the playoffs, that's for sure.
So now after another season with the reigns of GM, I expect things to be a little more active this off-season. Again, I honestly don't expect John Lackey or Matt Holiday to be Twins come next Spring, but could they acquire someone like J.J. Hardy or Mark DeRosa? It's at least more realistic.
The Twins are currently hovering around the 15th worst record in baseball, which as a Twins fan, is something we pay close attention to every year. If the Twins have one of the 15th worst records in baseball, their 1st round draft pick would not be surrendered if they chose to sign a Type-A free agent. At this point, that probably wouldn't be a bad thing to be in. The Twins are losing ground in the standings and although they keep holding on, at this point, it's very unlikely that they'll make the playoffs. While I'm not advocating that they throw games for the sole purpose to finish in the bottom-half of the standings, it wouldn't be the worst thing either.
But obviously, it's a pretty safe assumption that nothing will get done until number seven is signed, and while I hope it gets done early, I'm unfortunately expecting it to drag on throughout the off-season which could give the front office plenty of excuses why they're not more aggressive on the market.
I've grown more and more pessimistic over the summer and while I still love the Twins, I don't know if I have full faith in the front office or coaching staff to get this team to where it should be, which is at the top of the standings every year. The Twins might have the best hitting combination in baseball and one of the best overall players that has put on a jersey in this era, yet we have a hard time staying above .500 and play in a division with two deadbeat teams and no team that is stellar by any standards.
Something needs to change, and I truly hope that something happens this off-season to instill some of the faith that I may still have in this franchise.
September 2, 2009
Back
Hey everyone. I am finally getting things settled up at school which means that I should have more time to devote to the site from here on out. Thanks to a number of great Twins sites, I really don't feel the necessity to go into real depth on what I missed.
Rich Harden: It would have been nice to get him, but I'm happy the Twins didn't overpay for him. They'll have a shot at him in free agency. Definitely not worth two top prospects. Nice to see them stay aggressive though.
Brad Penny: I've never been a huge fan of his, and like Joe Christensen mentioned today, he probably thought the American League was too tough and wanted to get back to the 'senior circuit'.
Jon Rauch: Love this move. Although it cost the Twins Kevin Mulvey, I still think it's a win for the Twins. He's a good pitcher and he solidifies our bullpen for not only this season but for next season as well. Mulvey is a back-end starter, which the Twins have plenty of.
Ron Mahay: I also love this move. The Twins got him for pretty much nothing and he also comes in and gives us another viable arm for the bullpen.
And finally, can enough be said about Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing right now?
Go Twins!
Rich Harden: It would have been nice to get him, but I'm happy the Twins didn't overpay for him. They'll have a shot at him in free agency. Definitely not worth two top prospects. Nice to see them stay aggressive though.
Brad Penny: I've never been a huge fan of his, and like Joe Christensen mentioned today, he probably thought the American League was too tough and wanted to get back to the 'senior circuit'.
Jon Rauch: Love this move. Although it cost the Twins Kevin Mulvey, I still think it's a win for the Twins. He's a good pitcher and he solidifies our bullpen for not only this season but for next season as well. Mulvey is a back-end starter, which the Twins have plenty of.
Ron Mahay: I also love this move. The Twins got him for pretty much nothing and he also comes in and gives us another viable arm for the bullpen.
And finally, can enough be said about Jeff Manship and Brian Duensing right now?
Go Twins!
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