March 29, 2010

2010 Twins Predictions Day - April 2nd

I e-mailed this to a lot of Twins bloggers. If you didn't get it, there's a good chance it's due to my incredibly horrid internet connection (which made me re-send it about eight times) instead of me just forgetting about you. I sent it to nearly every e-mail address that I could find from the Twins blogs on my sidebar as well as others, so don't feel bad if you didn't get it because there's a good chance that you're not alone.

Last year, Seth Stohs posted a series of predictions at BaseballDigest.com on both the Twins and the rest of Major League Baseball. At the end of the season, I thought it was really interesting to look back on them and see how right (and wrong) we were. So with that in mind, I wanted to post this in case you'd be interested in taking part in some predictions for the 2010 season.

Much like Andrew Kneeland's "Nick Punto Day," post your predictions for the 2010 season on Friday, April 2. I apologize for the short notice (I sent out the e-mail last week), but if you're looking for something to post, this could be it!

Here are some example questions:

Twins-Specific Predictions

- Twins MVP:
- Twins Top Pitcher:
- Twins Best Rookie:
- Twins Most Improved Player:
- Bold Predictions (think of several if you'd like)
- A.L. Central Prediction (Standings):
- Three Keys to Success for the Twins:

Rest of the League Predictions
- A.L. MVP:
- N.L. MVP:
- A.L. Cy Young:
- N.L. Cy Young:
- A.L. Rookie of the Year:
- N.L. Rookie of the Year:
- A.L. Breakout Player of the Year:
- N.L. Breakout Player of the Year:
- A.L. Comeback Player of the Year:
- N.L. Comeback Player of the Year:
- A.L. Playoff Predictions:
- N.L. Playoff Predictions:
- World Series Prediction:

How you choose to post it is really up to you. Do what you want with it. If you want to post just the predictions, that's fine. If you want to write a paragraph along with each prediction, that's fine too. As long as you have fun and enjoy it, that's all I'm asking.

Go Twins!

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #5 Kyle Gibson

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #5 | Kyle Gibson

Position | Pitcher

Bats/Throws | Right/Right

Born | October 23, 1987 (Greenfield, Indiana)

School
| University of Missouri

Height
| 6'6''

Weight
| 208 lbs.

2009 Ranking | Not Ranked




Breakdown
Heading into the 2009 draft, Gibson was considered one of the best amateur pitchers in the country. Unfortunately for Gibson (and fortunately for the Twins), a forearm stress fracture made teams weary of taking him, which allowed him to drop to the 22nd spot in the draft where the Twins had a no-brainer in choosing Gibson. Signing him became a little more strenuous than the Twins probably would have liked, but the sides came together on a $1.8 million contract on the night of the signing deadline.

In Gibson's freshman season at Mizzou, he was used primarily as a reliever, appearing in 26 games out of the bullpen. He worked several innings at a time, which helped him in his sophomore season as he transitioned into being a starting pitcher. He won nine games in 2008 and was near the top of draft boards heading into 2009, even appearing as the fourth best prospect in the draft according to Baseball America. Gibson pitched well as a junior, but as the season wore on, he began feeling forearm tightness and during his last start on May 30th, he was reportedly only hitting between 83-86 mph on his fastball. Scouts worried about the possibility of Gibson needing Tommy John Surgery but was diagnosed with a forearm fracture. He fell to the Twins with the 22nd pick and the Twins surprised a lot of people by signing him well above the suggested slot value for that pick.

Gibson went 28-10 with a 3.65 ERA in three years at Mizzou. He has a good body frame and his repertoire features a low-90's fastball with (according to Baseball America) the best slider in the Twins system. Gibson also has a change-up and curveball, which he'll likely perfect while he's with the Twins. He'll be on the fast-track to the Major Leagues, so keep an eye on Gibson. Matt Garza jumped from Advanced-A to the Majors in one season, so it's not unfathomable to believe Gibson can do it as well.

2009 Statistics
Not Available (Signed Late)

2010 Outlook

Gibson will begin the season in Advanced-A Fort Myers. There's a very good chance he won't finish the season in Fort Myers, so make sure to keep an eye on him.

Pitching Repertoire
  • Fastball (90-92)
  • Slider
  • Curveball
  • Change-up
Video


Estimated Time of Arrival
2011

March 25, 2010

Mauer Contract

Due to a family emergency that has come up, it's likely that I won't find a way to post anything new for the rest of the week. But in the meantime here's a news package that my roommate Nick Lenz made for the UTVS News here in St. Cloud.

March 22, 2010

Score one for the little man

As noted here yesterday, the Minnesota Twins and Joe Mauer, the American League MVP, have agreed to an 8-year, $184 million contract extension, keeping Mauer in Minnesota through the 2018 season. Mauer will make $12.5 million in 2010 and will then make $23 million per season through the 2018 season.

This signing is not only great news for Minnesotans, not only for fans of Twins baseball, but for the sport of baseball in general. Forget about the fact that catcher's are more susceptible to injury than any other position player is and that he may be forced from the catcher's position at some point down the line. Just don't even think about that. Leave that be for another day. Instead, focus on the fact that the MINNESOTA TWINS, a team not a decade removed from looking down the throat of contraction, a team once forced to play inside a Teflon-roofed building not meant to host baseball, a team that had recently lost All-Star caliber players due to having insufficient funds, have signed a player for $184 million.

This move makes the Twins look like they were David taking down Goliath. It immediately instills faith into the fans of the San Diego Padres, Tampa Bay Rays and Milwaukee Brewers whose teams are trying to sign their premier players to long-term extensions even with little to no chance of it happening. Those teams will remain hopeful that their franchise players will sign before being swallowed up by the Chicago White Sox, New York Mets and other large market teams of Major League Baseball.

Is this the best move for the Minnesota Twins? Maybe not. It's hard to explain how one player making 25% of their team's payroll is a good move. However, this extension means a lot to the team's (and their fans) that have been unable to keep up with the large market teams who can lure players away by offering them a lot more money over more years without batting an eye.

Mauer, already one of baseball's most marketable and beloved players wasn't tempted by the thought of playing in a large city where he'd undoubtedly heighten his celebrity to disgusting levels. Instead, he's staying home to play baseball in the state that has made him their son. The organization that could have chosen Mark Prior, the best college pitcher in years to enter the draft. The team that he grew up cheering for as a child. Mauer's a rare breed, and he along with the Twins gave the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and the other teams that have pushed smaller teams around a shot right in the groin.

This is a big win for the little man.

March 21, 2010

Twins, Mauer agree to 8-year deal

Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune has reported that the Minnesota TWins and Joe Mauer have agreed to an eight year deal worth $184 million.

This is a great day for Twins baseball.

March 20, 2010

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #6 Angel Morales

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #6 | Angel Morales

Position | Outfield

Bats/Throws | Right/Right

Born | November 24, 1989 (Caguas, Puerto Rico)

School
| Puerto Rico Baseball Academy

Height
| 6'1''

Weight
| 180 lbs.

2009 Ranking | 6



Breakdown
Angel Morales was taken in the third round of the 2007 draft out of the Puerto Rican Baseball Academy in Gurabo, Puerto Rico. He was originally thought to be a light-hitting outfielder with outstanding speed and great defense. But in just two-and-a-half short years, Morales has become one of the best power-hitting prospects the Twins have while maintaining great defense and his blazing speed.

After signing a $234,000 signing bonus, Morales was sent to the Gulf Coast League where he hit .256/.357/.405 in 38 games for the Twins. In 2008, Morales began the season in Extended Spring Training before joining the Elizabethton Twins in June. He appeared in 54 games with the Twins and hit .301/.413/.623 with 15 home runs but drove in just 28 runners. In 2009, Morales continued to move up the ladder, joining the Beloit Snappers for his first go-around in a full season league. He looked severely over-matched until he finally turned it on in July. He finished the season hitting .266/.329/.455 with 13 home runs in 376 at-bats.

Morales has as much potential as anyone in the organization, but he's equally as raw as he is talented. One thing that you must consider when evaluating a player like Morales is that he was playing in the Midwest League at 19-years-old, two years younger than the average age. Interestingly, he's almost two months younger than 2008 first round pick Aaron Hicks, whose plate discipline is light-years ahead of Morales'. His strikeout total is his biggest area of concern, but he's so young that it's hard to imagine that it won't improve at some point. Offensively, Morales reminds me of Alfonso Soriano while defensively I think that the Carlos Beltran comparisons fit nicely. Whether or not he actually comes close to reaching his potential is anyone's guess, but he's definitely a player worth keeping an eye on.

2009 Statistics
          Level       G    PA     AVG     OBP     SLG     XBH     HR   wRC+
          A-        115   418    .266    .329    .455      40     13    122


2010 Outlook

Morales turned things around in the second half of the season which along with his talent will likely ensure that he starts the 2010 season in Advanced-A Fort Myers. Given that the Florida State League is tough on hitters and that he's only 20-years-old, Morales will likely stay there for the entire season.

Video



Estimated Time of Arrival
2012

March 16, 2010

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #7 Danny Valencia

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #7 | Danny Valencia

Position | Third Base

Bats/Throws | Right/Right

Born
| September 19, 1984 (Miami, Florida)

School
| University of Miami

Height
| 6'2''

Weight
| 210 lbs.

2009 Ranking | 3


........................(Jerry Hale/MLB.com)




Breakdown
After a successful yet short-lived two year career at the University of Miami, the Minnesota Twins felt fortunate when Danny Valencia was still available in the 19th round of the 2006 draft. Valencia signed quickly and reported to the Appalachian League and in less than four years, he's gone from being a 19th round pick to the third baseman of the future for the Twins.

With the Elizabethton Twins, Valencia hit .311/.365/.505 in 190 at-bats. He moved up to Single-A Beloit in 2007 where he hit .302/.374/.500 before being promoted to Advanced-A Ft. Myers in June. He spent the rest of the 2007 season and the first half of the 2008 season in the Florida State League where he hit .313/.367/.469 with 43 extra-base hits in 450 at-bats with the Miracle. In June of 2008, Valencia was promoted to Double-A New Britain and spent the same time there as he did in Ft. Myers. He received 484 at-bats in the Eastern League and hit .287/.353/.483 with 55 extra-base hits. In June of 2009, Valencia got one step closer to reaching the Major Leagues when he was promoted to Triple-A Rochester. He finished off the season with the Red Wings hitting .286/.305/.454 in 71 games. He got off to a great start but cooled off, enough for the Twins to not promote him when rosters expanded in September.

Valencia is a very solid prospect. He's hit .299/.354/.480 through 1,635 at-bats he's hit 176 extra-base hits and has become a doubles-hitting machine, hitting a career high 38 doubles in 2009 after hitting 37 in 2008. There's little doubt that Valencia has the tools to be a solid Major League contributor with his bat. And at this point, the only thing holding Valencia back is his defense. He struggled a lot at third base in 2009, but he's been fine there throughout his career which gives promise that he'll turn things around.

2009 Statistics
          Level       G    PA     AVG     OBP     SLG     XBH     HR   wRC+
          AA         57   252    .284    .373    .482      25      7    134
AAA 71 282 .286 .305 .454 31 7 100


2010 Outlook

Valencia has a shot at making the Twins roster, but unless there's an injury, he'll begin the 2010 season as the starting third baseman of the Rochester Red Wings. Expect him up if the Twins infield suffers an injury or after

Video



Estimated Time of Arrival
2010

March 13, 2010

Span, Twins agree to new contract

First off I want to apologize for my lack of writing as of late. I've been on Spring Break this past week and...well...lets just say that the computer I'm using isn't the greatest. I know it's a lame excuse, but it's the truth. So I apologize and I will certainly write about a lot of things this week (such as the Nick Blackburn contract extension, Joe Nathan injury, and I'll finally get around to finishing my Top 50 Twins Prospect list). Thanks for visiting.

This morning, Joe Christensen of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune announced that the Minnesota Twins have signed Denard Span to a new five-year contract. The deal will be worth up to $16.5 million and it also contains an option year worth $9 million. The contract itself will buy out all of Span's arbitration years without dipping into any of his free agency. However, his first year of free agency will be covered by the option year if the Twins decide to pick it up.

I received several e-mails and saw several comments about the Twins not worrying about signing Joe Mauer and that they're almost admitting defeat by signing guys like Nick Blackburn and Span to contracts before him. I completely disagree that either of these signings are an indication of whether or not they've "admitted defeat." In fact, I believe these contracts will give the Twins a better idea of what future expenses will be which should help them see how Mauer's contract will fit into their plans. Consider that optimistic, but I believe that's every bit as possible as the Twins "admitting defeat."

Here's how the $16.5 million will be dispersed:
2010: $750,000
2011: $1 million
2012: $3 million
2013: $4.75 million
2014: $6.5 million
2015: Team option of $9 million (including a $500,000 buyout)

A very reasonable price to pay for arguably the best lead-off hitter in the American League. It's tough to say whether or not he would have made that money through arbitration, but the Twins are alleviating any headaches they may have encountered through that process.

This is the second vote of confidence that the Twins have given to Span sine the end of last season. The other being the trade of Carlos Gomez to Milwaukee, ensuring that Span remains the full-time center fielder. This coming not two years after everyone had already written him off as a viable Major League outfielder.

Span has recently credited LASIK eye surgery for helping him evolve into one of the game's premier lead-off hitters. In the past, he's credited motivation in helping him get better, "I read about people saying I'm not ready and that I suck, etc. But I read it to get motivated." As Rob Neyer of ESPN.com recently wrote, we'll probably never know what has helped Span the most, but whatever it is, it's working.

In response to the signing, Span said, "I'm definitely not angry today." But if motivation is what's kept him going, I think Twins fans will need to unite and have a "Bash Denard Span Day" to help push him further.

I'm glad to see Span get the extension, even if it's only for the purpose to avoid headaches during arbitration.

March 10, 2010

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #8 David Bromberg

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #8 | David Bromberg

Position | Pitcher

Bats/Throws | Left/Right

Born | September 14, 1987 (Santa Monica, California)

School
| Santa Ana Community College

Height
| 6'5''

Weight
| 241 lbs.

2009 Ranking | 26




Breakdown
The Twins took David Bromberg with their 32nd round selection in the 2005 draft. Bromberg signed with the Twins as a 'draft-and-follow', which allowed him to play a season with the "Dons" of Santa Ana CC. He went 3-2 with a 4.28 ERA before making the move into professional baseball.

Bromberg was assigned to the GCL Twins in 2006 where he won three games and posted an impressive 2.66 ERA in 10 starts. In 2007, Bromberg began the season in Extended Spring Training before joining the Elizabethton Twins in June. Through 13 games (11 starts), Bromberg was 9-0 with a 2.78 ERA. He also struck out 81 Appalachian League batters in 58 1/3 innings, helping lead the Twins to an Appy League Championship. In 2008, Bromberg moved up to the Midwest League. At first glance, Bromberg looked to have regressed. He was 9-10 with a 4.44 ERA. So saying that isn't completly untrue, but his 177 strikeouts lead all of Minor League Baseball, which certainly put more eyes on him. In 2009, Bromberg welcomed the added attention and truly made a name for himself. With the Ft. Myers Miracle, Bromberg was 13-4 with a 2.70 ERA in 27 games (26 starts). After the season, he was named the Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year.

At 6'5'' and 240+ lbs., Bromberg can certainly intimidate opposing hitters when he's on the mound. He has a good repertoire of pitches, headlined with a low-mid 90's fastball and a great slurve. He also has a good slider and an improving change-up as well. Some believe he could someday end up in the bullpen, but right now, he's proven to be a workhorse out of the bullpen (throwing 303 1/3 innings over the past two seasons).

2009 Statistics
          Level      W     L     ERA      IP     K    BB     WHIP     FIP
          A+        13     4    2.70   153.1   148    63     1.23    3.28

2010 Outlook

Bromberg will be in Double-A New Britain in 2010. He'll likely spend the entire year there.

Pitching Repertoire
  • Fastball (91-94)
  • Slider
  • Slurve
  • Change-up
Video


Estimated Time of Arrival
2012

March 9, 2010

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #9 Rene Tosoni

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #9 | Rene Tosoni

Position | Outfield

Bats/Throws | Left/Right

Born
| July 2, 1986 (Toronto, Ontario)

School
| Chipola Junior College

Height
| 6'0''

Weight
| 195 lbs.

2009 Ranking | 20



Breakdown
Selected by the Twins in the 34th round of the 2004 draft, Tosoni chose to go the JUCO route instead of signing. He was selected in the 36th round a year later but this time chose to sign. Unfortunately, issues with his visa forced Tosoni to miss all of 2006 which meant he wouldn't be allowed to begin his professional career until 2007, two years after he was drafted.

Tosoni was sent to Elizabethton of the Appalachian League in 2007 where he hit .301/.407/.428 with 20 extra-base hits to help lead the Twins to an Appalachian League Championship. He hardly got a sip of coffee with the Beloit Snappers, but most believed he'd be back to the Midwest League for all of the 2008 season. But the Twins surprised many by promoting Tosoni straight to the Florida State League, and it looks to have been the right decision. Despite missing three months with a broken foot, Tosoni hit .300/.408/.414 in 42 games with the Miracle. In 2009, the Twins continued to move Tosoni up the the organizational ladder. He played the entire season with the New Britain Rock Cats of the Eastern League, hitting .271/.360/.454 with 44 extra-base hits in 122 games. He struggled in the Arizona Fall League, but being that he had 30 more at-bats in 2009 than he had in 2007 and 2008 combined, I think he deserves a free pass.

Tosoni is a very complete player. He has a very fluid swing and makes good contact. He isn't great on defense, but his strong arm will make the organization think hard about keeping him in right field. He has outstanding discipline at the plate, and he could be a good #2 hitter someday, but if he can't improve against left-handed pitching he might be nothing more than a bench bat for the Twins. Still, someone will eye Tosoni and the Twins may use him as trade bait given the amount of high quality outfielders the organization has.

2009 Statistics
          Level       G    PA     AVG     OBP     SLG     XBH     HR   wRC+
          AA        122   490    .271    .360    .454      44     15    125


2010 Outlook

Tosoni should be in Triple-A Rochester to begin the season, but it wouldn't surprise me to see him spend a little more time in Double-A New Britain.

Video



Estimated Time of Arrival
2010

March 2, 2010

Top 50 Twins Prospects 2010: #10 Adrian Salcedo

2010 Top 50 Twins Prospects | #10 | Adrian Salcedo

Position | Pitcher

Bats/Throws | Right/Right

Born | April 24, 1991 (Moca, Dominican Republic)

School
| Not Available

Height
| 6'4''

Weight
| 175 lbs.

2009 Ranking | Not Ranked




Breakdown
Adrian Salcedo signed with the Twins as a 16-year-old non-drafted free agent on December 13, 2007. He spent all of the 2008 season in the Dominican Summer League as a 17-year-old, but he didn't go unnoticed. He was the youngest pitcher on the team, but he was impressive nonetheless with a 1.65 ERA and a 6.25 K/BB ratio.

He came to the states in 2009 where he began the season in Extended Spring Training before joining the Gulf Coast League Twins in June. With the Twins, Salcedo put up similar numbers to what he had in the DSL the year before. He was 3-2 with a 1.46 ERA and a continued display of great command with his 0.05 BB/IP ratio.

Salcedo has a great repertoire of pitches and nearly all of them are considered "plus" at this point in time for his ability to command all of them. He used his change-up a lot in 2009 and (along with his sinking-fastball) induced a good amount of ground balls. He has a low-to-mid 90's fastball that one person I talked to said, "might have been the best fastball, in terms of command, in the Twins system in 2009." There has been some discrepancies as to whether he throws a curveball or slider, but I've heard more people describe it as a curveball. One person I talked to came up with a fair thought, perhaps he has both in his repertoire and it's just not easy to distinguish between the two? It's possible and if it were proven, I probably would have ranked him a few spots higher. Salcedo's size of 6'4'' and 175 lbs. is very projectable and it's always great to see that there's still room for growth. 2010 will be a big year for Salcedo. He has to prove that his 2009 season wasn't a fluke and that pitching in a pitcher-friendly environment like the Gulf Coast League didn't inflate his stats. With his advanced repertoire and ability to command all of his pitches, Salcedo should be considered for a spot in the Beloit Snappers rotation.

2009 Statistics
          Level      W     L     ERA      IP     K    BB     WHIP     FIP
          R (GCL)    3     2    1.46    61.2    58     3     1.01    1.92

2010 Outlook

It's tough predicting where Salcedo will go, but he'll likely begin the 2010 season in extended Spring Training before joining with the Elizabethton Twins when short-season leagues begin in mid-June. Don't be surprised though to see the Snappers call on him if they're in need of an arm.

Pitching Repertoire
  • Fastball (2 & 4 seam) (89-93)
  • Curveball
  • Change-up
  • Slider
Video
None

Estimated Time of Arrival
2014